429
FXUS62 KCHS 040547
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1247 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will largely prevail throughout the period,
keeping conditions quiet across our area. Outside of this,
expect a dry cold front to pass overhead Thursday, with perhaps
a second one taking aim at the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, ridging will be stretch across an area along the
Gulf Coast placing the forecast area on the southern edge of
zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure will start the day
centered across the southern Appalachians then will shift to be
right along the Southeast coast by the end of the day. Clear
skies will prevail with precipitable water values less than half
an inch. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s across
southeast SC and the low 70s for southeast GA.

Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue with high pressure
parked across the area. We should see good radiational cooling
conditions with clear skies and calm winds. Lows will be chilly,
with upper 30s possible inland ranging to the low 50s along the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc high pressure strengthens overhead Wednesday, keeping
conditions quiet across the area. Afternoon highs during this
time look to warm into the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny
skies, with winds becoming more southwesterly through the
afternoon. While breezy conditions are not anticipated, do think
it`s worth noting that relative humidity values in the lower
30s will be common across our interior counties. Thus, while
enhanced fire danger is not expected, still encourage folks to
exercise caution with any activity that may cause a spark, given
the fairly dry fuels in place.

Moisture starved cold front dives across the region Thursday,
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest in the wake of FROPA.
Outside of this, expect impacts to remain minimal, as highs
remain in the 70s.

Will likely see the aforementioned front stall along the coast
by Friday, as sfc high pressure builds in its wake. While a few
clouds may be possible throughout the day, should see mostly
sunny skies prevail. Thus, have highs warming into the mid to
upper 70s, with a few areas across far southeastern Georgia
rising into the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model certainty decreases heading into the weekend, as models
struggle to resolve if/when a secondary cold front will dive
across the southeastern CONUS. Overall consensus suggest that
FROPA will be possible sometime Saturday Night - Sunday Night.
Nonetheless, with a decent amount of dry air in the lower
levels, not expecting to see much if any in the way of
meaningful precipitation. Rather, expect temperatures to be the
most notable change - as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s dip
into the 60s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z
Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: The local waters will sit within the
tighter pressure gradient area around the nearby area of high
pressure. In response, winds will turn more northeasterly by
sunrise and speeds are expected to peak in the 15-20 knot range.
The gradient will relax through the afternoon and winds will
decrease through the overnight, becoming mostly 5-10 knots after
midnight. Seas will peak through midday in the 3-4 ft range and
up to 5 ft in the outer waters, then gradually diminish to 2-3
ft through the overnight.

Wednesday Onward: Winds speeds between 10 to 15 kts look to
prevail heading into the weekend, with the potential of slightly
breezier winds Friday night into Saturday as a front stalls
near the coast. Otherwise, look for seas to remain between 2 to
4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide cycles are expected this week due to the upcoming
full moon and perigee. Coastal flooding will be possible with
the morning high tides along the entire southeast South Carolina
and Georgia coast, especially as we head towards the middle of
the week when base astronomical levels are already at or near
minor flooding thresholds.

Charleston and coastal Colleton (Charleston Harbor gage): Both
Wednesday and Thursday morning tides have the potential to
approach/reach moderate flooding criteria of 7.5 ft MLLW.
Wednesday will have a more favorable wind direction, while
Thursday has a less favorable offshore wind direction but a
higher astronomical level. Either way, Coastal Flood Advisories
appear likely for this time period.

Beaufort County and south along the Georgia coast (Fort Pulaski
gage): There is potential for tides to reach right around minor
flooding criteria of 9.5 ft MLLW with the morning high tides,
especially Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories will
be possible.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...BSH/SST
MARINE...BSH/SST