319
FXUS62 KCHS 162249
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
649 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the rest of
this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or
early Monday, followed by another area of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Another very quiet night on tap across
southeast SC and southeast GA. Dry high pressure will remain in
control, and once the few diurnal cumulus that developed this
afternoon dissipate, clear skies will prevail. Tonight will
bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in quite some time.
Inland portions of southeast SC are expected to dip into the
upper 40s, with low 50s everywhere else just inland of the
coastal corridor. Such values would be the coolest the area has
been since roughly mid-April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Saturday: The center of a 1020 mb high will
build across the region during the late week. On Friday, a weak
H5 ridge is forecast to ripple across the region. Sky conditions
should remain clear/sunny through Friday. Given a cool start to
the day, 40s and 50s, afternoon temperatures are forecast to
peak in the lower 70s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 70s
across SE GA. The H5 ridge will flatten with the weak axis
shifting to the east Friday night into Saturday. HREF indicates
that high clouds should gradually increase from the west as the
ridge axis shifts over the Atlantic. The combination of thin
high clouds, light to calm winds, and dry weather should result
lows in the 50s, with pockets of upper 40s across portions of
inland SC. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range
from the mid 70s across the CHS metro to around 80 across SE GA.

On Sunday, near term guidance indicates that a cold front will
approach the forecast area from the west. As the front
approaches, return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen
through the day. High temperatures should favor values between
80 to 85. It is possible that an isolated shower may arrive over
SE GA by sunset on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models time a cold front across the region Sunday night into
Monday morning. Guidance as trended drier with recent runs, this
trend continued with the 12Z. Isolated showers are possible
with the passage of the front, providing little to no measurable
rainfall. High pressure will build in the wake of the front,
remaining until another weak front approaches late Tuesday.
Stronger high pressure is forecast to build across the region on
Wednesday. Temperatures should begin the day in the 50s and
warming into the 70s each day. Overall, the extended range
forecast appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z
Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the
CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will yield
NNE winds through tonight, generally around 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are forecast to increase, with some 6 ft seas entering the
20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters this evening. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect starting tonight for the 6 ft seas.

Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will generally weaken
through Friday into Friday night. As a result, 6 ft seas over
the outer GA waters should generally subside, a Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds
will veer around to the south-southeast on Saturday as high
pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from
the west Sunday, likely passing across the waters Monday
morning. A few gusts around 25 kts may briefly occur across the
nearshore Charleston County waters and outer GA waters Sunday
night. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no
additional marine concerns.

Rip Currents: NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell
around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for
our Georgia beaches through Friday. Low risk along the GA and SC
coasts on Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the early
evening high tide cycle Friday along the Charleston and
Colleton county coasts. Current forecast keeps tide levels on
the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be
lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts
overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes
less favorable.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED