


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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319 FXUS62 KCHS 162249 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 649 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through the rest of this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday, followed by another area of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Another very quiet night on tap across southeast SC and southeast GA. Dry high pressure will remain in control, and once the few diurnal cumulus that developed this afternoon dissipate, clear skies will prevail. Tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in quite some time. Inland portions of southeast SC are expected to dip into the upper 40s, with low 50s everywhere else just inland of the coastal corridor. Such values would be the coolest the area has been since roughly mid-April. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday through Saturday: The center of a 1020 mb high will build across the region during the late week. On Friday, a weak H5 ridge is forecast to ripple across the region. Sky conditions should remain clear/sunny through Friday. Given a cool start to the day, 40s and 50s, afternoon temperatures are forecast to peak in the lower 70s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 70s across SE GA. The H5 ridge will flatten with the weak axis shifting to the east Friday night into Saturday. HREF indicates that high clouds should gradually increase from the west as the ridge axis shifts over the Atlantic. The combination of thin high clouds, light to calm winds, and dry weather should result lows in the 50s, with pockets of upper 40s across portions of inland SC. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from the mid 70s across the CHS metro to around 80 across SE GA. On Sunday, near term guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the forecast area from the west. As the front approaches, return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen through the day. High temperatures should favor values between 80 to 85. It is possible that an isolated shower may arrive over SE GA by sunset on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models time a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance as trended drier with recent runs, this trend continued with the 12Z. Isolated showers are possible with the passage of the front, providing little to no measurable rainfall. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, remaining until another weak front approaches late Tuesday. Stronger high pressure is forecast to build across the region on Wednesday. Temperatures should begin the day in the 50s and warming into the 70s each day. Overall, the extended range forecast appears dry. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will yield NNE winds through tonight, generally around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to increase, with some 6 ft seas entering the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting tonight for the 6 ft seas. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will generally weaken through Friday into Friday night. As a result, 6 ft seas over the outer GA waters should generally subside, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south-southeast on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing across the waters Monday morning. A few gusts around 25 kts may briefly occur across the nearshore Charleston County waters and outer GA waters Sunday night. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. Low risk along the GA and SC coasts on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the early evening high tide cycle Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...BSH/NED MARINE...CPM/NED