705
FXUS61 KCLE 030005
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast this afternoon and high
pressure will build in briefly south of the region through
Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the region early Thursday
followed by high pressure building in on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
7:05 PM Update...
Light lake effect snow showers and drizzle have diminished this
evening. As such, the Winter Weather Advisory for Lorain,
Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Medina, and Summit Counties has been
allowed to expire at 7 PM. Some roads will remain slick through
tonight. Please use caution if traveling.

Previous discussion...
An upper level trough is moving through the region this evening and
will push off to the east with the accompanying surface low
pressure. At the surface, snow as ended for the majority of the
region with a few exceptions along the lake shore. Currently there
are a few mesovortices moving north to south into an area stretching
from Lorain Co northeast through Lake Co in Ohio. This has been
bringing visibilities down to less than a mile in some cases.
Though, with the size of the feature and the snow rates being low,
accumulations will be minimal, but could still bring in hazardous
conditions while out and about. Elsewhere, there are pockets of snow
bringing similar conditions to those areas, mainly within the
primary and secondary snowbelts at this time. These conditions will
continue off and on through this evening until drier air moves in
from the west. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue through 7PM
tonight for this since conditions can quickly deteriorate within a
snow band.

Early Wednesday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the
region and there should be dry weather through much of the day. To
the north, upper level trough begins to develop and will push east
across the Hudson Bay. This will support a surface cold front that
will move into the region late Wednesday night. This arctic front
will bring widespread snow showers to the region with a concentrated
area along the lake shore in the primary and secondary snowbelts.
Areas in northeast Ohio could see totals from 1-3 inches and areas
in northwest Pennsylvania could see 2-4 inches with the highest
totals near the Pennsylvania/New York border. The front should clear
the region early Thursday morning and snow showers should end for
the majority of the region.

Temperatures in the near term will stay below normal with overnight
lows down into the upper teens to low 20s and highs in the low to
mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will have exited the
region to the east though there will be some lingering snow showers
in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Snow showers should
end throughout the day as drier air moves in behind the front and
surface high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will be fairly
elevated behind the front at 5-15 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph.
This will bring wind chills down into the teens throughout the day
on Thursday. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s on Thursday and
then drop down into low teens for much of the region away from the
lake shore. With the elevated winds, wind chills will be well into
the single digits to start Friday morning, with some areas nearing
zero. Temperatures should recover fairly well throughout the day as
the high pressure builds off to the east and winds shift to be out
of the south. Highs for the day will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday night lows will be down into the mid to upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Saturday, a low pressure system will develop to the north of the
region and sweep a cold front across the region. This will potential
bring another round of snow showers to the region with some lake
effect snow on the back end of the system. Will continue to monitor
this as it develops. For Sunday and the start to next week, there is
some disagreements within the models of the strength and timing of
any features. There is slight agreement in upper level troughing
starting to develop across central CONUS, but again, with how far
out this system is, it`s difficult to say the impacts. What there is
more confidence in is the temperatures for the long term.
Temperatures will continue to be below average for the highs and
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Generally MVFR ceilings with patchy VFR will continue through
the Wednesday afternoon. Can`t rule out a brief window of IFR
ceilings at a few terminals overnight. A ridge of high pressure
will build across the region through Wednesday which will allow
for ceilings to lift to VFR ~15Z/Wed. A cold front will push
southeast towards terminals near the end of the TAF period
bringing another round of snow showers and MVFR conditions to
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Light southwest winds under 8 knots will persist through
Wednesday morning. These southwest winds will increase to 5-10
knots, approaching 12 knots across western terminals late
Wednesday morning. Periodic gusts up to 20 knots will also be
possible at these terminals through Wednesday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Wednesday evening into Thursday in snow along
a cold front. Non-VFR may return in scattered snow showers on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As a weak high pressure system slowly drifts east across the area
today, calm marine conditions are expected to linger across Lake
Erie through tonight. On Wednesday, a low pressure system is
expected to push southeast across Ontario towards the region,
eventually moving a cold front east late Wednesday into Thursday. As
the gradient increases across Lake Erie on Wednesday, southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20-25 knots with locally higher
winds possible across the open waters. Given the offshore flow,
waves along the southern coast of Lake Erie will generally range
from 4-6 feet, although locally high is possible at times. In
addition, the strong southwest flow may result in low water
conditions across the western basin where lake levels may fall
below the critical mark for safe navigation.

As the aforementioned cold front moves east Wednesday evening into
the overnight hours, winds will back behind the boundary to become
northwesterly at 20-25 knots. This strong onshore flow will increase
waves to 6-8 feet across the central and eastern basins with 4-6
feet across the western basin. These hazardous waves and winds are
expected to continue through Thursday. This entire period from
Wednesday late morning through Thursday afternoon will need a Small
Craft Advisory as marine conditions will once again become
dangerous. By late Thursday into Friday, high pressure will return
allowing for a brief return to calm marine conditions. Winds will
persist from the southwest at 15-20 knots into the start of the
weekend before becoming northwesterly at 10-15 knots behind a cold
front late Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23/13
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04