646
FXUS61 KCLE 040722
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
222 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this
morning. High pressure will build in later today into Friday.
Another cold front will through the area on Sunday. High
pressure will build in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main weather story for the near term forecast now through
Friday will be the quick shot of Arctic air and the coldest
temperatures yet so far this winter season. As of 2 AM, the
Arctic front was just entering northwest Ohio. Ahead of the
front, there have been a few bands of light snow in the west-
southwest flow aloft from around the Cleveland area up to around
Erie PA this morning. We have already hit our 24 hour maximum
temperatures for today. The Arctic front will slide through the
area later this morning with a wind shift from the northwest 15
to 25 mph and gusty. Temperatures will mainly stay in the lower
to middle 20s today. Wind chills will be in the teens to single
digits later today. There may be a bring burst of light snow as
the front pushes through later this morning. As the flow becomes
northwesterly later this morning, there may be a few scattered
lake effect snow showers or brief bands of LES that tries to
develop this morning through the early afternoon. This brief
period of some lake effect will be mainly for the primary
snowbelt with light amounts possible of 1 or 2 inches. Inland
Erie County PA may see between 1 to 3 inches.

The center of the Arctic airmass or high pressure will build in
over northern Ohio this evening. Skies will clear out and
overnight low temperatures will fall into the single digits by
early Friday morning. Winds will be lighter overnight but any
light breeze would cause wind chills to be near or slightly
below zero late tonight into Friday morning. High pressure will
still be around on Friday with partly cloudy skies and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The overall weather pattern looks to remain cold and a little
active this weekend. A large upper level trough will remain over
the Great Lakes region into much of the eastern CONUS this
weekend. Another cold front will be on the way late Saturday
night into Sunday. Ahead of the cold front on Saturday, there
will be a light southwest flow with temperatures moderating into
the lower and middle 30s Saturday afternoon. A shortwave trough
will pinwheel around the base of the larger upper level trough
on Sunday. Another blast of colder air will arrive with a cold
frontal passage on Sunday. There will be a chance of light
snow this weekend from Saturday into Sunday. There will be a
better shot of light snowfall on Sunday into Sunday night with
some scattered lake effect behind the cold front. Some light
snowfall accumulations may be possible in the primary and
secondary Snowbelt this weekend. Sunday high temperatures will
stay below freezing in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Sunday night
low temperatures will be back down in the teens and a few single
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the Midwest into the Upper Ohio
Valley on Monday. There could be some lingering lake effect
snow showers early Monday across the Snowbelt. High temperatures
on Monday will be very cold in the middle to upper 20s. Wind
chills early Monday will be in the single digits to teens.
Temperatures will slowly moderate back into the 30s going into
the middle of next week. Another clipper like system will move
through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday with
another chance for light snow and a cold frontal passage by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Light snow has spread across all terminals ahead of an arctic
cold front. This has dropped cigs and vis to mainly MVFR. The
back edge of the snow is about through KTOL and KFDY, so expect
those sites to be completely dry within the next hour or two
other than some passing flurries. This will allow VFR to return
to KTOL before sunrise and to KFDY by mid morning. Farther east,
the snow will last a few hours longer this morning, and still
expect some bursts of moderate to briefly heavy snow with gusty
winds between now and about 11Z. Timing of this burst of snow,
or line of squalls, is still low confidence, but regional radar
loops show the band starting to organize over Lake Erie, so the
thinking is that the arctic front will catch this lake enhanced
band and push it southeastward over the next 4 to 6 hours,
leading to some brief IFR or lower at KERI, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG,
and KMFD. Drier air will rapidly work in behind the front this
morning, with all terminals expected to be VFR by mid afternoon,
although some scattered lake-effect snow showers will linger
around KERI until late afternoon.

SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times over the next few
hours, especially at KCLE and KERI. The winds will turn sharply
NW behind the arctic front by sunrise this morning, and NW winds
will decrease to 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming light and
variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings Friday night through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie into Thursday.
Southwest winds continue this evening ahead of a cold front,
flipping northwest late tonight into Thursday behind the front.
Winds are at peak this afternoon in the 20-27kt range, will subside
briefly to 15-20kt tonight, increase again to 20-25kt out of the
northwest right behind the front Thursday morning, and then subside
quickly from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds in. Water levels will remain near the critical mark
for safe navigation across the west end early this evening before
rising tonight as winds veer northwesterly. Small Craft Advisories
continue tonight into Thursday, then expire from west to east
Thursday afternoon and evening.

A cold front crosses the lake late Saturday into Saturday night,
leading to another period of elevated southwest winds that shift
northwest with the front. This will be the next opportunity for
Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn