044
FXUS61 KCLE 092125
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
425 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large and deep upper level trough will bring much colder
temperatures and lake effect snowfall through Tuesday. An upper
level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
late this week with milder temperatures and fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

The main weather message with this forecast update is the
potential for lake effect snow and accumulating snowfall for
both the primary and secondary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA. This
lake effect snow event will start this evening and lingering
through Tuesday.

We have made some updates to the winter weather headlines. A
Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow is now in effect
for all the primary and secondary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA
starting this evening. The end time of the advisory varies from
west to east Monday into Tuesday as this lake effect event
transitions across the area. A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been
issued for inland Erie County PA where the highest snowfall
totals are expected and have significant winter weather
impacts. Be sure to look at the most recent updated WSW
products and winter weather headlines for specific details
including timing, forecast snowfall amounts, and expected
impacts.


The water vapor imagery and ther GOES-19 satellite channels
show very nicely a large and deep upper level trough is digging across
the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This deep trough will be
will bring down a blast of cold and bring our first round lake
effect snow for this season. As of 3 pm, the surface cold front
was approaching the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line. Behind the
front, northerly to northwesterly has started the cold air
advection into our area. After a lull this afternoon with the
rainfall earlier today, recent radar trends have shown an
uptick in precipitation developing across northwest Ohio and
western Lake Erie. Initially the precip will be in the form of
rain showers. During the evening, there will be a transition to
wet snow or graupel mixing in before all the precip changes
over to snow showers. There will be a period of lake enhanced
precip this evening with the northerly flow off the lake for
most of northern Ohio and NWPA. Later overnight and into Monday
morning, we will see bands of lake effect snow and possible
intense snow squalls. 850 mb temps will drop to -10C to -12c by
early Monday morning. Very strong lake induced instability will
develop with CAPE values 1000-1200 J/KG, thanks to an average
lake water temp of 53F. Most of northern Ohio and NWPA will see
accumulating snowfall by early Monday morning which could impact
the morning commute.

High-res model guidance still shows some mesoscale features that
we will have to keep an eye on tonight through Monday night. One
potential feature may be a Lake Huron connection trying to
develop later tonight and come across western Lake Erie into
NWOH early Monday morning. This Lake Huron connection if it
develops, may gradually pivot eastward during the day Monday
down the lakeshore. It could be near the Cleveland area around
midday and near the Ashtabula/Erie County PA area by Monday
evening. Our snowfall ratios will start around 8:1 this evening
and increase to around 15:1 by tomorrow morning. With this being
a wetter snowfall and some trees still have foliage, there may
be an increase risk for downed tree limbs onto power lines
causing scattered power outages.

Several inches of snowfall is expected in the winter weather
advisory area by tomorrow morning. Snowfall rates may exceed 1
inch per hour in the more organized lake effect bands. There is
the potential for a few isolated intense snow squalls that could
have rates of 1 to 2 inch per hour in localized areas of the
Snowbelt. Temperatures will fall into the mid/upper 20s to
around 30 degrees tonight. High temperatures on Monday will stay
in the 30s. with scattered lake effect snow showers and squalls.
Accumulation during the day will be dependent on where bands
persist and snowfall rates to overcome temperatures being near
or slightly above freezing to account for melting.

The northerly flow will become west-northwesterly by Monday
evening and night. The lake effect snow potential will also
shift to more of the primary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA Monday
night. There may be a Lake Huron connection that could impact
NWPA and the Erie PA area most of Monday night before it shifts
eastward Tuesday morning. Overall 1 to 3 inches of snowfall will
be possible outside of the advisory area. 2 to 5 inches of
snowfall with localized higher amounts possible in the advisory
area. 6 to 11 inches will possible be in the warning area which
is inland Erie County PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing lake effect snow will slowly wind down for NEOH and
NWPA Tuesday morning lingering into midday. The low level flow
will become southwesterly on Tuesday and that will slowly shut
the lake effect off. The low levels of the atmosphere will also
start warming on Tuesday and become less favorable from west to
east. We have all of the headlines ending by midday on Tuesday.
Lingering lake effect will may hug closer to the lakeshore
Tuesday afternoon and mix with or change over to rain showers.
A strong low pressure system will move across the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Strong gusty southwesterly
winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Another cold front will move through the
region on Wednesday and change the flow to westerly and
eventually west-northwest. This W-NW flow will bring back the
chance for scattered lake effect rain showers possible mixing
with some wet snow flakes late Wednesday and Wed night.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The end of the week and next weekend will favor nicer weather as
temperatures rebound back to more seasonable averages or even a
little above average. An upper level ridge will build in over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by the end of the week and next
weekend with milder weather and fair weather. A surface high
pressure system will also build over the Ohio Valley by Friday.
Temperatures will climb back into the 50s to near 60s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Non-VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of the
period across all terminals. Currently, a mix bag of conditions
are being observed ranging from LIFR to VFR, some sites with
snow and other rain, and ceilings ranging from OVC at 200 feet
up to OVC at 6kft. This forecast is tricky as a low pressure
system tracks east across the area today and much colder air
ushers in behind it but here is the thinking about conditions
with this update.

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist
through part of tonight into early Monday morning for western
terminals before ceilings lift a bit and conditions should
rebound to MVFR. Elsewhere, increasing confidence in lake effect
snow may result in prolonged IFR/LIFR conditions at terminals
along and east of I71. Wind direction will be critical as that
will drive the direction of the lake effect snow bands expected
to develop, but given a period of northerly winds, even KMFD and
KCAK may be impacted. The terminals with the highest confidence
in maintaining diminished conditions due to snow are KCLE,
KYNG, and KERI. At these terminals, periods of heavy snow may
reduce visibilities to less than 1SM at times, however there
remains uncertainty in where these bands will develop so opted
to handle the worsening conditions with a PROB30. This lake
effect potential will persist through the end of the period with
the strongest bands slowly shifting east throughout Monday.

Winds across the area are currently reflective of circling
around the low pressure center with north-northwesterly winds
on the backside of the low and northeasterly to even some
southerly winds on the front end. As the greatest gradient moves
east with this low, expected northwest winds of 10-15 knots to
occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots. The strongest winds are
expected to be isolated to the lakeshore, potentially impacting
KCLE and KERI. Expect a brief lull in wind speeds late
tonight/early Monday before increasing again Monday morning. All
winds will become sustained from the north-northwest at 10-15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected through Monday with rain and snow
showers as a low pressure system moves east. Possible prolonged
non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
with lake effect showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist for much of this
week as an active weather pattern continues to impact the region.
Today, winds on Lake Erie will gradually shift from northeasterly to
more north-northwesterly by this evening as a low pressure system
tracks east just south of the lakeshore. This low will move off the
New England Coast on Monday, resulting in a surface trough with
north-northwest flow lingering over the east Great Lakes. Given the
fetch, lake effect snow is likely inland, but over the water much
should remain rain with an isolated potential for thunder in the
most well developed bands. Winds will remain sustained at 20 to 30
knots with the strongest winds across the central basin. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire
southern lakeshore of Lake Erie through Tuesday.

On Tuesday night, hazardous marine conditions will continue as
another low pressure system centered near Hudson Bay moves an
associated surface trough east across the area. This will once again
increase the gradient, moving a warm front east on Tuesday night
followed by a cold front on Wednesday. During this period, there is
a potential that the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie will
see gale force southwesterly winds. Will need to monitor the
strength of winds expected in the coming forecasts, but this period
will definitely need a Small Craft Advisory if not a Gale Warning.
By Wednesday night, high pressure should start to nudge northeast,
allowing for winds to slowly diminish through the day on Thursday.
By Thursday night, west-northwest winds should fall below 20 knots
and allow for a break in the hazardous conditions across the lake.
Until then, waves will frequently exceed 4 feet and winds will
remain stronger than 20 knots. Boaters should use caution this week
if going out on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Monday for OHZ010-019-020-029>031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ011>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ021>023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ001-003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04