983
FXUS61 KCLE 220018
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to sweep generally eastward through our
region through this early evening. Behind the cold front, a
ridge affects our region through Sunday night as the embedded
high pressure center moves from the Upper Midwest tonight to
near the central Appalachians by daybreak Monday. This track of
the high pressure center will allow a warm front to sweep
generally northeastward through our region Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our region through tonight. The axis of a stronger and
positively-tilted shortwave trough should move generally E`ward
from the western Great Lakes, central Great Plains, and
vicinity to near eastern NY state and the Lower OH Valley by
daybreak Saturday. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
shortwave trough axes will maintain abundant cloud cover over
our region. At the surface, a cold front had already swept
E`ward through roughly the western 1/4 of our CWA as of 2:37 PM
EST. This front will continue to sweep generally E`ward across
the rest of our CWA through this early evening. In addition, a
pre-front trough axis, associated with a separate and more
subtle shortwave trough aloft, will continue to sweep generally
E`ward across NW PA and vicinity through this mid-afternoon.
Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity through daybreak Saturday. Net CAA at the surface and
aloft, behind the cold front, will contribute to lows reaching
the lower to upper 30`s around daybreak Saturday.

Isolated rain showers may be triggered by convergence/ascent
along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axis, but the
antecedent atmospheric column is fairly dry at/near the surface.
However, the greater potential for rain, primarily light in
nature, exists late this afternoon through the first few wee
hours of Saturday morning, in response to frontogenetical
convergence/moist ascent aloft, ahead of the positively-tilted
shortwave trough axis. The greatest potential for this more-
widespread rain still exists roughly along and south of U.S.
Route 30 in our CWA, where the residence time of precip should
be greatest and thus precip should be able to reach the surface
via the wet-bulb effect. Given the expected progression of the
shortwave trough axis, all associated precip is expected to exit
our CWA generally to the east by daybreak Saturday. Based on
the latest forecast timing of precip, rain should end before the
atmospheric column becomes cold enough for rain to mix with or
change to wet snow.

During Saturday through Saturday night, a shortwave ridge should
advance from the Upper Midwest and vicinity toward New England
as the axis of an amplifying shortwave trough moves from the
northern Great Plains and vicinity toward Lake Huron and
vicinity. At the surface, the ridge will continue to affect our
region on Saturday as the embedded high pressure center moves
from the western Great Lakes toward the northeast United States
During Saturday night, a rather moisture-starved warm front will
sweep NE`ward through our region and be accompanied by weak
surface troughing.

Peeks of sunshine and net low-level CAA will be accompanied by
late afternoon highs in the lower 40`s to near 50F on Saturday.
Net low-level WAA is expected to become established across our
region Saturday night. Overnight lows should reach mainly the
lower to mid 30`s shortly after midnight Sunday morning and be
followed by a slight moderation in air temperatures by daybreak
as low-level WAA strengthens somewhat. Dry weather is expected
Saturday through Saturday night due, in part to stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the surface ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Sunday through Monday, an amplifying ridge aloft should
build from the southern and central Great Plains and eventually
crest E`ward over our region as the above-mentioned shortwave
trough axis moves from Lake Huron and vicinity around daybreak
Sunday to the Canadian Maritimes and vicinity by nightfall
Monday evening. At the surface, weak residual troughing behind
the warm front will be replaced quickly by ridging as the parent
high pressure center moves from near the Ozarks to near the
Delmarva Peninsula. Primarily dry weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough
axis may trigger a few wet snow and/or rain showers in NW PA
shortly after daybreak and through late morning on Sunday. No
snow accumulation is expected.

Continued net low-level WAA and intervals of sunshine should
allow late afternoon highs to reach the 40`s to lower 50`s on
Sunday and the upper 40`s to mid 50`s on Monday. In between,
intervals of clear sky and weak or calm surface winds should
contribute to lows reaching mainly the mid 20`s to mid 30`s
around daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit
E`ward Monday night and allow cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow
aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances to begin impacting our
region. Cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft should then
persist through Wednesday night as embedded shortwave
disturbances continue to impact northern OH, NW PA, and
vicinity. The cyclonic flow aloft should shift to NW`erly on
Thanksgiving, when the axis of a particularly-strong shortwave
trough should move E`ward through our area. NW`erly cyclonic
flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should then
continue to impact our CWA Thanksgiving night through Friday,
November 28th. At the surface, net troughing should impact our
region Monday night through Friday. In addition, a cold front
associated with a rather strong shortwave trough should sweep
generally E`ward through our CWA Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s
around daybreak Tuesday and be followed by daytime highs in the
50`s as net low-level WAA continues in our region. Lows should
reach mainly the upper 30`s to lower 40`s overnight Tuesday
night and be followed by daytime highs in the mid 40`s to lower
50`s on Wednesday. The warmest highs on Wednesday should occur
farther east in our CWA, prior to the cold front passage. Net CAA
at the surface and aloft should occur in earnest behind the
cold front. This CAA regime should contribute to lows reaching
mainly the mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak Thanksgiving
morning and daytime highs reaching only the mid 30`s to near 40F
for the holiday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 20`s
Thursday night and be followed by daytime highs only in the mid
30`s to near 40F on Friday.

Periods of showers are expected Monday night through Friday the
28th due, in part to the following: moist isentropic ascent
ahead of shortwave trough axes; convergence and moist ascent
along surface trough axes and the cold front. Behind the cold
front, a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level flow over and
downwind of ~8C Lake Erie should become established and support
lake-effect precip generation later Wednesday through Friday,
which has been a signal in NWP model guidance for at least the
past 72-hours. The direction of the mean low-level flow remains
highly uncertain and will be tied closely to the evolution of
the shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. For
example, the latest runs of the GEM and ECMWF models, which are
often quite accurate and reliable, indicate the mean low-level
flow could vary between SW`erly and NW`erly. Something to
monitor closely in the coming days. Given expected evolution of
the atmospheric column, including the vertical profile of wet-bulb
temperature, rain should be the predominant precip type Monday
night through Wednesday. However, rain may mix with wet snow early
Tuesday morning in interior NW PA. Net CAA at the surface and
aloft should contribute to rain mixing with or changing to snow
in a general west to east manner Wednesday night through
Thanksgiving and then allow snow to be the predominant precip
type Thanksgiving night through Friday. Accumulating snow is
possible. It remains way too soon to discuss specific snow
amounts, but we will continue to closely monitor trends in
deterministic NWP models and ensemble forecast systems,
including probabilistic forecasts from NBM, over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Light rain will spread northeast into the area this evening as
an area of low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. Most
locations are MVFR at the start of the period but do expect
some of the terminals closer to the Route 30 corridor to lower
to IFR. Visibilities will primarily be MVFR in showers but will
occasionally drop to IFR in moderate rain. Rain is expected to
be intermittent at CLE in the 03-07Z window.

Low level moisture and clouds will decrease from northwest to
southeast into Saturday morning. Some residual moisture and
heating will lead to re-development of clouds for a few hours
in the east before losing the low clouds completely towards 17Z.
Winds are 5 knots or less and variable at the start of the
period but will trend towards northwesterly and eventually
northerly. That will continue through most of Saturday afternoon
with winds developing out of the south again after 00Z Sunday.

Outlook...Low probabilities of MVFR clouds on Sunday. VFR is
favored through Monday. Non-VFR in rain showers possible Monday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
West-southwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon and early
evening will become northerly 5-15 knots behind a cold front
overnight. Waves will generally be 1 to 2 feet tonight. High
pressure will briefly build over the lake on Saturday with light
northwest winds 5-10 knots and waves 2 feet or less. A warm
front will lift across the lake Saturday night with a return of
southwesterly winds increasing 10 to 20 knots by early Sunday
morning. Another fast moving cold front will move through the
Great Lakes on Sunday shifting the winds more westerly 10 to 20
knots. There may need to be a brief Small Craft Advisory Sunday
with waves building around between 3 and 6 feet across the
central and eastern basin of the lake. We will continue to
monitor trends in the coming forecast updates. These winds
should weaken by Sunday night to 5-10 knots and become more
southerly again Monday and into Tuesday. A stronger low pressure
system may develop over the Midwest and move across the Great
Lakes region by the middle of next week, bringing gusty winds
and the potential for hazardous marine conditions to Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...10
MARINE...77