179
FXUS61 KCLE 070000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight before gliding east
across the local area on Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will
quickly build across the Great Lakes region Wednesday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will exit to the east tonight as an upper level trough
and surface cold front push east across the Great Lakes region. Some
prefrontal showers are possible across the western half of the
forecast area overnight tonight. Showers will overspread the region
by Tuesday as the cold front tracks across the local area. Some
isolated thunderstorms, sub-severe, will be possible with the
frontal passage as surface based CAPE increases to 500-750 J/kg.
Most if not all of the local area should receive at least 0.50
inches of rain with this system with localized pockets of 0.75-1.00
inches possible mainly along and east of I-71. The Weather
Prediction Center continues to highlight the eastern half of the
forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall in their Day 2 ERO. The cold front will exit to the
southeast Tuesday night with any lingering showers and cloud cover
diminishing during the overnight hours.

Warm overnight lows tonight in the low to mid 60s, upper 50s across
Northwest Pennsylvania. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to
be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler. Low temperatures will fall into the
mid to upper 40s Tuesday night behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure is expected to quickly build across the Great
Lakes region behind the aforementioned cold front. The combination
of these features will allow for a significant airmass change and
below normal temperatures expected through the short term. High
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected each
afternoon. Low temperatures fall into the 30s areawide. Confidence
in areas of frost developing continues Wednesday and Thursday night
with widespread areas of minimum temperatures less than 36 degrees
across inland locations across much of North Central and Northeast
Ohio and typical cold spots in Erie and Crawford Counties in
Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will generally remain overhead across much of the
Great Lakes and Northeast regions through the long term leading
to mainly dry conditions. Some uncertainty as we head into the
weekend on the exact track of an upper level low moving across
the Great Lakes region. If the low moves in the vicinity of the
region expect for precipitation chances to increased. For now,
maintained a dry forecast for now given the uncertainty.

Highs will return to near normal values in the upper 60s through
the long term with overnight in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration to
MVFR and IFR ceilings/vsbys late tonight into Tuesday ahead and
along of a cold front. Already beginning to see pre-frontal rain
and periodic embedded thunder developing upstream across the
Lower Ohio Valley this evening. This area of precipitation will
arrive northeast into the area later tonight, resulting in
widespread MVFR to perhaps brief IFR vsbys across the TAF sites.
Did introduce some thunder chances across the central sites
(FDY/MFD/CLE). Otherwise, attention turns towards Tuesday
afternoon where showers and thunderstorms may re-develop along a
cold front. Thunder chances appear more likely within the line
and have reflected this with tempo tsra groups Tuesday afternoon
and evening as the cold front sweeps west to east through the
area.

South to southwest winds are between 7 and 10 knots this
evening. Wind speeds will maintain around 7 to 10 knots on
Tuesday, gradually favoring a southwest to west direction by
late morning and early afternoon. Winds will then abruptly shift
towards the northwest and north behind a cold front late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic lake effect clouds on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be departing to the east through the evening as
low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region late tonight through
Tuesday night. Winds this evening will be light at 5-10 knots out of
the southwest and increase overnight to 10-20 knots. Frontal passage
should occur Tuesday afternoon into the evening and winds will shift
to be out of the north to northwest. The winds will also increase to
15-25 knots with the strongest winds expected in the central basin.
A Small Craft Advisory will most likely be needed late Tuesday night
through midday Wednesday across the central basin. Waves will also
build to 3-6 feet during the period of increased winds. High
pressure will build in with winds and waves subsiding late
Wednesday into early Thursday with the waves response being
later into Thursday than the winds. From Thursday through the
end of the week, winds will be out of the east to northeast at
10-15 knots and decrease to 5-10 by Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...23