155
FXUS61 KCLE 031200
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will shift south this
evening. A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area
early Thursday morning followed by high pressure expanding east
across the area Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly flow will increase today between high pressure
departing to the south and a cold front approaching from the north.
Southwest winds gusts of 20-30 mph are possible this afternoon.
Unfortunately a low stratus deck will tend to clear as mid and high
clouds increase so mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. This will
limit temperature recovery with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

A potent upper level trough will drop into the Great Lakes Region
tonight and swing east through Thursday. A cold front extending from
low pressure over Hudson Bay will push south across the area during
the second half of Wednesday night with 850mb temperatures falling
to as low as -17C towards Erie PA and closer to -10C towards
Central Ohio. A quick burst of snow is likely to accompany the
snow, with a light coating possible outside of the snowbelt and
a heavier band moving in off Lake Erie in the northeast.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will allow for some
residence time over Lake Erie which will allow for a band to
develop over the lake. This band is expected to push south into
the snowbelt between 1-7 AM and could have rates of an inch per
hour or more, especially in northern Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie
County PA. With that said, the residence time of the band in any
given location is not expected to be more than an hour or two
so accumulations will tend be 1-3" across northern portions of
the primary snowbelt. This band will have snow squall
characteristics with low visibilities in Lake, Ashtabula, and
Erie County Pennsylvania. Slick conditions are possible
elsewhere where there may be a light coating of snow, and if
clouds tend to clear then black ice could quickly develop.

Lake effect snow showers may continue Thursday afternoon or
evening in the snow belt as the flow backs but moisture depth
becomes increasingly shallow and limited to 5-6K. Temperatures
peak in the 20s late morning with falling temperatures Thursday
afternoon. Conditions will feel rather cold with northwest winds
causing wind chills near 10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure quickly builds in behind the front Thursday afternoon.
Skies are expected to clear out Thursday night and support good
radiational cooling and low temperatures in the single digits
except lower teens along the lakeshore. High pressure and dry
conditions continue Friday then shifting south Saturday as a
shortwave trough moves through the flow aloft. A surface trough
looks to push onshore sometime Saturday afternoon/evening and
could see scattered lake enhanced snow showers in NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania. Deep moisture is only briefly available and
thermal profiles are not overly cold over Lake Erie so expecting
little if any accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The persistent cold pattern continues into long term with a
broad longwave trough across the eastern two thirds of the
CONUS. Daily highs are expected to be in the upper 20s to low
30s each day which is generally about 10 degrees below normal
for early December. Precipitation looks to also be below normal
through Monday as the active storm track looks to be well south
of the region. Models show a clipper system may approach the
region next Tuesday but confidence is low in timing or track of
any systems on day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread MVFR and IFR ceilings across the TAF sites this
morning and confidence remains low on if ceilings are able to
disperse by this afternoon. Given upstream observations and the
overall pattern, went with a pessimistic ceiling forecast,
keeping the entire area under IFR and/or low-end MVFR ceilings
for today. Attention then turns towards this evening and
overnight as light snow overspreads the area ahead of a strong
cold front. Vsbys will primarily be around 3sm, though can`t
rule out brief 2 to 2 1/2sm vsbys. A more focused band of snow
should accompany the cold front overnight, with the highest
confidence in impacts at CLE/ERI with low-end IFR vsbys.

Winds are generally out of the southwest this morning, 7 to 10
knots. Winds will gradually increase through today, 10 to 14
knots with occasional gusts of 20 to 22 knots. Winds will
abruptly shift towards the northwest behind the cold front
overnight, 10 to 12 knots with gusts of 20 to 22 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings Friday night through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions are expected into Thursday as elevated
southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots arrive across Lake Erie today.
Have issued a Low Water Advisory for the western basin of Lake Erie
with this update, given increasing probabilities of water levels
falling below the critical mark for safe navigation of 5 inches
below low water datum, particularly later this afternoon and
evening. Believe the most likely scenario is for water levels to
fall as low as 6 to 12 inches below low water datum by late this
afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, marine conditions will improve by Thursday night into
Friday as high pressure builds across the area. Southwest winds of
15 to 25 knots will develop Friday afternoon and evening ahead of
the next front. Winds will shift towards the west behind a cold
front on Saturday, 15 to 25 knots, and a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.
Quieter marine conditions will return by Sunday into Monday with
weak northerly flow of 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn