149
FXUS61 KCLE 072034
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area this evening followed
by high pressure building east across the region on Monday. Low
pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and weaken
followed by a stronger clipper system moving through the Central
Great Lakes on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A light snow continues across northern portions of the area late
this afternoon as a cold front is pushing south across the region.
Temperatures at mid afternoon are near or just above freezing
and road temperatures tend to be a couple degrees warmer. This
will have a limiting effect on accumulations with generally a
half inch or less in Northeast Ohio with locally up to an inch
and a half for favored upslope areas in NW Pennsylvania. Much of
this is expected on grassy or untreated elevated surfaces that
may be cooler or anywhere that snow may still be falling just
past sunset. Water vapor imagery shows dry air aloft already
spreading west to east across the area as shortwave energy
passes and the snow is really expected to wane between 6-9 PM.

Flow behind the cold front will veer to north northeast and clouds
will linger downwind of Lake Huron across north central Ohio,
gradually shifting west with time. High pressure builds overhead
Monday with partly cloudy skies and some periods of sun. High
temperatures will be in the upper 20s Monday except low to mid
20s in NW Pennsylvania where thermal profiles are running a few
degrees cooler. Skies start off mostly clear Monday evening and
the light winds will allow temperatures to quickly fall with
lows ranging from the single digits in PA to low teens in Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the weekend trough pulls away, a series of shortwave troughs will
move through the northwest flow aloft towards the Great Lakes
Region. The first low pressure system will reach the Upper Great
Lakes on Tuesday. A 50+ knot low level jet will overspread the area
on Tuesday morning with warm advection increasing. Although it may
take some time for the low levels to saturate, some light snow is
expected to develop across northeastern portions of the area. Minor
accumulation of a dusting to an inch are possible with
temperatures trending warmer. Southwesterly winds will also be
breezy as we attempt to mix into the stronger flow aloft.
Inversion heights will likely be 2000 feet or higher and expect
to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph as the warm front lifts north
during the late morning and early afternoon.

Chances of precipitation decrease Tuesday evening with dry air
aloft and weak ridging at the surface before a stronger clipper
system approaches the area Wednesday morning. While some spread
exists between solutions, a 988 mb surface low is forecast to
cross southern Lake Michigan early Wednesday. The surface
pressure gradient tightens and a near 60 knot low level jet
moves overhead, but mixing depths are expected to be very
shallow at 1000 feet or less with 850mb temperatures around 0 C
in the warm sector. Windy conditions still expected but wind
gusts may take until the cold front arrives from the northwest
late in the afternoon to really increase. The GFS shows a
compact trough from the surface to 700mb swinging southeast
across the area and wind gusts of 40 mph or higher could
accompany this secondary push of cold air. We will tend to be on
the warm side of this clipper initially with precipitation
arriving as rain or quickly transitioning to rain in the pre-
dawn hours of Wednesday. Rain will be the primary precipitation
type into early afternoon before starting to mix with or
transition back over to snow on Wednesday afternoon.

The upper level trough axis is east of the area by Thursday morning
but some differences exist in mid-range models on how quickly the
trough pulls away. This may result in a loss of deep moisture on
Wednesday night but in general expect to see lake effect snow
showers develop in a northwest flow regime. It is too far far out to
have a handle on accumulations but light to moderate lake effect
snows are possible as 850mb temperatures fall to -10 to -12C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast begins with a broad longwave trough in place
across the eastern United States. Another piece of energy dives
south from the arctic, likely bringing the coldest air of the
season. Temperatures at 850mb look to fall to around -18C west of
the Great Lakes and possibly maintaining temperatures near that cold
across Lake Erie. While differences in model spread exist, all long
range models have a very cold airmass overhead next weekend with
good potential for lake effect snows in the northwesterly flow.
How quickly the trough pulls away will impact how much snow is
possible in the primary and secondary snowbelt next weekend and
could see some lighter snow amounts area wide with the cold
front. There is high confidence in below normal temperatures
through next weekend and may remain below 30 degrees through the
entire long term forecast. By Sunday, some areas may not even
reach 20 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A band of light snow is impacting Northwest Ohio and points
east-northeast near Lake Erie and into Northwest PA as of 18z.
Due to small flake size, this otherwise very light snow is
effectively reducing vsby to IFR, with low MVFR to IFR ceilings
also observed under the snow. Conditions are in a higher MVFR to
VFR range farther southeast at MFD, CAK, and YNG where it is
not yet snowing, and quickly improve to MVFR and eventually VFR
behind the back edge of the snow in MI. Expect a period of lower
vsby (likely IFR) and ceilings (IFR to low MVFR) to sweep east-
southeast across CLE, CAK, and YNG over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, expect TOL and FDY to begin improving over the next
few hours, with improvement continuing to the southeast after 0z
as the snow dissipates/exits. Am expecting limited lake effect
snow to flow south-southwest off of Lake Erie through early
Monday, probably just some flurries but could locally maintain
some MVFR ceilings. All will continue improving to VFR on Monday
as lingering lake effect clouds dissipate as high pressure
briefly builds in.

Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the north at
7-13 knots this evening, with some 20kt gusts near the lake.
Winds gradually shift more east-northeast at 5-10kt overnight
tonight into Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain
will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through
Thursday. Gusty winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift northerly
and increase to 15-25 knots this evening, then gradually shift more
east-northeasterly through tonight and into Monday. Winds will
remain elevated at 15-20kt through tonight before decreasing more on
Monday, falling below 15kt across the entire lake by late morning.
Waves will increase to 2-5 feet this evening and persist through
early Monday before subsiding to 1-3 feet by late Monday morning.
Small Craft Advisories remain as posted east of the Islands for this
evening and tonight, expiring at 7 AM Monday east of Geneva-on-the-
Lake and at 10 AM to the west. Sustained winds may briefly reach
20kt in the western basin this evening, though the duration of any
advisory-level conditions is expected to be too brief to expand the
advisory west of the Islands. Winds will continue gradually veering
to an east and then southeast direction at <15kt through Monday.

Rough marine conditions are expected late Monday night through
Wednesday night. An initial weaker low pressure will track through
the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across
Lake Erie. Winds will shift south-southeast to south-southwest and
increase to 15-25kt late Monday night into early Tuesday as the warm
front crosses the lake. South-southwest winds will peak at 25-35kt
during the day Tuesday, with 30-60% confidence in marginally
reaching gale-force winds across the central and eastern portions of
the lake. There is some question on how well the very strong winds
aloft will mix down in a warm advection (upglide) regime on Tuesday,
which leads to the medium confidence in reaching a gale. Winds
remain south-southwest and lull slightly (to 20-30kt) Tuesday
evening/night. Stronger low pressure tracks through the central
Great Lakes late Tuesday night through Wednesday, pushing a cold
front across the lake Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds increase
to 30-40kt ahead of the front late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
before shifting northwest at 25-35kt late Wednesday and gradually
subsiding Wednesday night as low pressure exits. Confidence in gales
on Wednesday is higher given the involvement of a cold front,
stronger winds aloft, and generally stronger low pressure...at 20-
40% in the western basin and 50-80%+ across the central and eastern
basin. A Low Water Advisory will be needed Tuesday into Wednesday
for the western basin as we get closer. Gale Watches will be issued
within the next couple of forecast cycles for at least the central
and eastern basins...given somewhat lower confidence in reaching
gales on Tuesday and a brief lull Tuesday evening held off on
starting gale headlines for now, though they are coming.

After a brief period of quieter conditions Thursday into early
Friday, another period of stronger west-northwest winds is likely
Friday or Saturday behind a strong cold front which will usher in
Arctic air for the weekend. More headlines will be needed...

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan