619
FXUS61 KCLE 041721
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger over the East Coast through the weekend
before drifting east early next week. A cold front associated with a
low pressure system over Quebec will move east Tuesday into Tuesday
night before high pressure returns late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure
continues to influence the weather across the region. Dry conditions
are expected with sunny skies and light and variable winds.
Temperatures will be above average for this time of year with highs
climbing into the 80s across the entire area. The warmest
temperatures will be across the western counties where temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper 50s out west and into the low 50s across eastern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to influence the area through Monday
before an upper level trough slowly pushes east into the region. At
the surface, an associated low pressure will move towards Quebec,
moving a cold front east on Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the
passage of this front, widespread showers are expected to occur with
QPF values generally 0.5 inches or less. Some locally higher amounts
are possible, although there is no current concern for flooding
given the ongoing drought and the longer period which the
precipitation will fall over. There is a non-zero chance of thunder
on Tuesday afternoon, but not expecting anything severe at this
time.

Temperatures on Monday will remain above normal as they climb into
the low to mid 80s, but as the front passes on Tuesday temperatures
will be a bit cooler as they only climb into the low to mid 70s.
Overnight lows will gradually cool as well with temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday night before cooling
into the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few lingering showers are possible across the eastern portion of
the CWA Wednesday morning before a Canadian high pressure system
builds east across the region. The return of high pressure will
result in the return to dry conditions once again through Friday.
Given the shift in airmass, much cooler and more seasonable
temperatures are expected through the long term period with highs
climbing into the low to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday with
slightly warmer temperature in the upper 60s possible Friday.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s overnight, with
the coldest temperatures expected across NW PA and far NE OH. Have
opted to keep the potential for front on Wednesday and Thursday
nights given the cold temperatures and relatively light winds
expected during the overnight hours. Will need to continue to
monitor trends to determine how widespread frost may be.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pressure
remains situated over the east coast and influencing the region.
Winds will be around 5 knots and predominantly out of the south to
southwest today being on the west side of the high, with some light
variable winds at times as well. A cumulus field around 040-060 has
started to develop across the western portion of the region
impacting KCLE down to KMFD and west. This will decay in the evening
and give way to clear skies.

Outlook...VFR is expected through Monday evening. A cold front will
approach the area late Monday into early Tuesday and non-VFR will be
possible within showers and thunderstorms through early
Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions remain across Lake Erie through the weekend as high
pressure off the east coast influences the region. Winds will be
light, 5-10 knots, generally out of the south, then increase to 10-
15 knots by early Monday ahead of a cold front. Waves will be less
than 2 feet through the weekend. By Tuesday, winds will shift to be
more southwesterly and then shift to be northwesterly after frontal
passage Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The winds and waves will
also increase Tuesday evening behind the front to 15-25 knots out of
the north to northwest with waves building to 3-6 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23