867
FXUS61 KCLE 140759
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A primarily dry cold front will cross the area tonight. High
pressure will then build behind the front on Wednesday and
persist through the end of the week. A warm front will lift
north through the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of a primarily dry cold frontal passage tonight into
Wednesday morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the
near term period as high pressure builds behind the front on
Wednesday.

For this morning, beginning to see signs of fog develop on
satellite along and west of the I-71 corridor across Northwest
Ohio. This area of fog is supported by multiple HREF members and
would appear to linger perhaps into mid-morning if it can continue
to become established over the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a cold front will move south across the area tonight into Wednesday
morning, though the current guidance favors this to be a generally
dry front with limited available low- level moisture.

High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday behind the front, with temperatures falling slightly
below average in the low to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main concern for the short term period will be the potential
for frost/freeze conditions Wednesday and Thursday night,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor as high
pressure continues to expand south and east across the region.
Otherwise, mainly quiet and dry weather is expected for much of the
short term period. A warm front will lift north through the
region Friday night which may result in scattered rain showers,
especially across the northern half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A more active weather pattern will develop for the long term
period as a low pressure system sweeps east through the Great
Lakes on Saturday into Sunday, bringing much-needed widespread
rain to the region.

Widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms are
most likely to arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a large
upper-level trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes,
extending a cold front across the area. Forecast confidence for
timing is medium-high given the upper-level model consensus.
Forecast uncertainty begins to increase later Sunday and beyond
as the upper-level pattern begins to become more chaotic in
terms of the upper-level trough becoming negatively or
positively tilted. A cooler air mass is ultimately expected to
arrive behind the front on Monday with seasonably-cool
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and a modest westerly
breeze of 15 to 20 mph.

Above-average temperatures will arrive ahead of the weekend
system, with highs reaching the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s
in some spots across Northwest Ohio. Temperatures are not
expected to near record- highs at this time which currently sit
in the mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure to the northeast continues to allow for no active
weather across the region. Low level moisture will remain
trapped in Northwest Ohio and non-VFR mist and fog will once
again form in the region. The flow off Lake Erie is a touch more
northerly and will allow for fog potential to be more
widespread for KTOL and KFDY and possibly even KMFD later this
morning - will continue to hit the IFR and LIFR potential with
some dense fog expected near daybreak. MVFR ceilings continue to
creep across NW PA and far NE OH thanks to low level moisture
extending northwest from the system off the East Coast. This
system will slowly depart to the east today and MVFR will adjust
eastward by late morning. Otherwise, VFR will be expected for
this afternoon and beyond with light northeast flow and some
afternoon cumulus possible ahead of a cold front.

Outlook...VFR expected before periods of rain showers with non-
VFR on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge over the lake will maintain light northeast flow for the
first half of the day. A cold front will cross the lake this
afternoon and strong northerly flow up to 20 kts will overtake
the lake through Wednesday night. Waves over the central basin
are expected to build to at least 4 ft and have issued a Small
Craft Advisory for Vermilion to Conneaut from 8 PM this evening
to 10 AM on Wednesday.

High pressure will enter behind the front for Wednesday and
Thursday and flow over the lake will decrease. High pressure
will shift east Thursday night into Friday and winds will back
to the east then southeast by Friday afternoon. A warm front
will lift north across the lake on Friday night and southerly
flow will increase for Friday night and Saturday back into the
15 to 20 kt range, as a larger low pressure system will enter
for the weekend. There is certainly potential for marine
headlines this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ145>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic