377
FXUS61 KCLE 151156
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
656 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region this morning before a
cold front moves southeast across the local area tonight. A
trough will linger over the Lower Great Lakes through Monday
with low pressure moving east into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
High pressure will return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will lift northeast across the region at the start
of the near term period, resulting in increasing temperatures
and widespread cloud cover this morning. Afternoon temperatures
will likely reach the mid to upper 60s across NW OH, low to mid
60s across northeastern and north-central OH, and the upper 50s
across NW PA. Isolated rain showers are possible along the warm
front (generally east of I-71) early this morning with warm
sector rain chances increasing across NE OH/NW PA as a cold
front approaches from the northwest this afternoon. The front is
expected to move southeast across the CWA late this afternoon
into this evening before exiting to the southeast tonight.

There may be just enough forcing/instability for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. A Marginal Risk
for severe weather is still in place across far southeastern
zones for this evening, although the severe weather potential
is very conditional. Extensive cloud cover will be in place
across the local area ahead of the cold front, but a few models
are hinting at some mid-level dry air working into the area just
ahead of the cold front this afternoon which could allow clouds
to clear just enough for a narrow corridor of destabilization.
The wind field supports the potential for some gusty
showers/stronger thunderstorms with effective bulk shear values
likely reaching 35 to 40 knots ahead of the cold front. The
window for stronger convection would be pretty narrow, as
convective showers and thunderstorms could develop near the
southeastern border of the CWA between 21Z and 00Z and quickly
move southeast out of the local area. Regardless, it will be
gusty even outside of precipitation today with peak gusts of 30
to 40 mph anticipated this afternoon through tonight.

Scattered lake enhanced showers may develop just behind the cold
front tonight, however the better push of cold air won`t arrive
until Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures will likely fall to -6
to -8C Sunday, which should provide sufficient lake-induced
instability for lake effect precip across the primary snowbelt
region. The highest PoPs will be focused across NW PA,
especially near the PA/NY border due to west-northwest fetch
over the lake. Temps will be somewhat marginal in this area
during the day Sunday, but ptype will likely be a rain/snow mix
with periods of snow possible at inland locations. Accumulation
will be hard to come by during the day Sunday given the warmer
surface temps, but accumulation will be likely Sunday night (see
short term discussion below).

Tonight`s low temps will be in the 30s and highs will vary a bit
on Sunday. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s are likely across
the snowbelt region with mid to upper 40s expected elsewhere. It
will also be quite windy Sunday with continued gusts to 30 to 40
mph expected areawide. Gusts may briefly approach 45 mph close
to the lakeshore Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Accumulating lake effect snow is likely Sunday night into Monday
as an upper trough remains in place across the local area.
There`s still some uncertainty in the placement of lake effect
bands and the resulting snow accumulations, but as of now it
still looks like the main band of snow will be focused close to
the PA/NY border. The highest snow accumulations of 3 to as much
as 5+ inches are likely across the higher terrain of eastern
Erie/Crawford counties with amounts rapidly tapering off to the
west and along the lakeshore. There`s potential for a marginal
Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday night and Monday morning, so
stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

There`s some potential that lake effect precip could stick
around through Monday night, but dry air will likely be building
into the region from the southwest which should allow PoPs to
taper off. On Tuesday, low pressure will track east across the
Ohio Valley and the precip shield will likely clip the local
area. The northward extent of the precip shield and the
resulting ptype remains a bit uncertain, but there`s potential
for snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Highs will generally be in the upper 30s and lower 40s
throughout the short term period with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s anticipated each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will return on Wednesday, resulting in a period of
dry weather. Rain chances could begin to increase from the
southwest as early as Wednesday night as the next system
approaches from the southwest, but PoPs will be highest as the
system moves across the area at some point late Thursday into
Friday. Still a lot to iron out with this system, but as of now
it appears that the precip type will be rain rather than snow.
Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values during the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR generally persists this morning, but some patchy MVFR has
developed near the warm front in eastern Ohio. This MVFR should
expand across north central and NE Ohio by late morning, causing
KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI to be primarily MVFR the rest
of the day. A few showers or sprinkles will occur in the warm
sector as well from late morning through the afternoon, but
confidence is low in terms of the coverage, with the MVFR cloud
deck likely being the main impact. The best chance for showers
will be at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. A strong cold front crossing
the region in the wake of the low this evening will bring a
higher potential for a line of showers to NE Ohio and NW PA, so
have a more defined window of showers at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI in
the 19 to 01Z timeframe. Regarding NW Ohio and KTOL and KFDY,
these terminals will stay west of the best forcing and moisture
through the day, so they should stay dry and VFR. All sites will
see improving cigs tonight.

SW winds will rapidly increase to 15-25 knots this morning
areawide. Winds will turn W and gust to 30-40 knots at times
this afternoon as the cold front approaches and crosses the
area. NW winds of 15-25 knots will then continue through
tonight.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings could linger across eastern portions of
the area into Sunday with snow showers and reduced visibility
possible in Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday.
Non-VFR will be possible again Tuesday and Tuesday night with
scattered rain showers across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
After a brief reprieve, another period of active marine conditions
is expected today through Monday as a strong low pressure system
crosses the Great Lakes. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots
behind a warm front late this morning then turn W at 20-30 knots as
the strong cold front sweeps across the lake this evening. Winds
will then veer to NW tonight and further increase to just below Gale
force, and NW winds of 20-30 knots will continue through Sunday
before gradually diminishing to 20-25 knots late Sunday night and 10-
15 knots by late Monday. These winds will build waves to 5 to 8 feet
in the central and eastern basins tonight and 6 to 9 feet Sunday
into Sunday night before gradually subsiding. Small Craft Advisories
go into effect from the Islands to Ripley, NY at 17Z today and from
Reno Beach to the Islands at 00Z this evening. The far western zone
from Reno Beach to the Islands will expire Sunday night, but the
headlines will continue for the rest of the lake through Monday and
into Monday night since winds and waves will take longer to
diminish.

Light and variable winds are expected by Tuesday before becoming ENE
at 5-10 knots by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Sunday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EST Monday for
     LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST Monday for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas