Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
453 FXUS64 KCRP 071129 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal flooding will likely reoccur mid to late this week. Advisories will likely be needed this week, especially Thursday and Friday. - Dangerous swimming conditions early this week with a moderate to high rip current risk. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!" - Low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through Thursday, generally south of HWY-44, before drier air diminishes rain chances heading into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A trough of low pressure currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche today, producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NHC currently has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the 48 hours before moving inland over Mexico midweek. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge will be the more dominant influencing feature over South Texas all the way into early next week. This setup will create a distinct gradient of moisture between drier airmass around or north of our CWA, and tropical moisture airmass over Deep South Texas. Due to the close proximity of these disorganized showers and storms over the north side of the surface low/trough, we`ll maintain a low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday, focused south of HWY-44. Friday into early next week will be rain-free with the mid-level ridge holding strong overhead and drier air filtering in. Highs will continue to range from the mid 80s along the islands to the mid 90s inland, whereas the usual lows in the 70s will be able to drop into the 60s this upcoming weekend. Due to very light winds and decreasing swell periods, there is less confidence in water reaching the dunes today and tonight. P-ETSS continues to show good agreement with tides reaching 2.0 ft MSL at Aransas Pass, but we saw that this past afternoon and observed water failing to reach the dunes. Nonetheless, we`ll have to continue to keep a close eye on conditions. Confidence does increase once again Wednesday into the latter half of this week as moderate to strong northeasterly flow returns, enhancing the Ekman transport and likely feeling the influence of the aforementioned surface low/trough swells. I am especially concerned Thursday through Friday. In addition to wave runup threats, dangerous swimming conditions will likely be present at times with a moderate to high rip current risk. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Any MVFR conditions this morning should return to VFR by mid- morning. Have PROB30s for possible showers at ALI/CRP/VCT with reduced VSBYs in and around any showers/storms that develop. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the TAF period. Currently, guidance is suggesting a lesser chance for fog overnight tonight so have left out of TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) tonight, will shift back northeasterly Wednesday, strengthening to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5), becoming fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Thursday through Friday. Low to moderate (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Thursday. Very low rain chances of 10- 20% close out the rest of the week as drier air filters in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 An increase in moisture will keep minimum relative humidity above 30% through much of this week. Sustained surface and 20 ft winds will generally remain weak at less than 20 mph out of the northeast to southeast. High temperatures will continue to run above normal ranging from the low to mid 90s inland with daily low (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances mainly south of HWY-44 through Thursday before drier air filters in heading into the weekend. We could see brief periods of relative humidity falling below 30% over the northern Brush Country Friday and Saturday where Energy Release Component values are between 70-90th percentile, but confidence is low. Overall, critical fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 10 10 Victoria 93 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 94 74 95 73 / 20 20 20 10 Alice 94 72 93 71 / 30 10 20 0 Rockport 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 10 10 Cotulla 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 91 73 92 72 / 40 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 78 87 78 / 30 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80