003
FXUS64 KCRP 300627
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms and flash flooding
  early this morning for the Victoria Crossroads and northern
  Coastal Bend

- Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms along and
  ahead of front early this morning, additional chances late
  tonight through Monday

- Near freezing wind chills early Tuesday morning from Live Oak to
  Victoria counties

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The cold front is currently moving southward stretched W to ENE
across the Hill Country south of San Antonio into Southeast Texas.
Latest CAM guidance shows a slightly later progression through
South Texas, mainly between 2-8 AM early this morning. Ahead of
and along the front, there is a medium to high chance of showers
and thunderstorms, with an environment marginally conducive for
strong to severe storms mainly focused over the Victoria
Crossroads. It`s been a slow and dry start of the overnight hours,
but do expect convection to increase over the next couple of
hours. There is a marginal risk of severe storms, capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds, as well as flash flooding
with high rain rate slow moving cells. Farther westward, the
environment is more capped and will struggle to tap into any
instability capable of producing strong to severe storms.

A lull in rain chances is expected in the wake of the cold front
Sunday afternoon, before medium to high rain chances return late
tonight through Monday as a surface low develops over the northwest
Gulf. The proximity of the boundary and low inducing moist
isentropic lift, in combination of a more amplified mid-level
shortwave, warrants medium to high rain chances. Rain chances
diminish once again Monday night as a reinforcing surge of high
pressure pushes through. Surface high pressure shifts eastward
thereafter, returning onshore flow Wednesday along with a coastal
trough. The coastal trough will remain intact ahead of our next cold
front passage late in the work week Thursday - Friday, allowing for
medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to persist until
the passage. This late week front isn`t in as good of model
agreement, nor look as strong as this morning`s, and therefore kept
low chances of showers and thunderstorms to close out the week.

Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
highs mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s and lows in the 40s, with
the exception of early Tuesday morning in the upper 30s over
northern counties. More seasonal-like temperatures are expected
mid to late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Around the 08-10Z timeframe, conditions begin to deteriorate from
north to south as the front propagates in. Winds quickly shift to
become north-northeasterly and strengthen to sustained speeds near
20 knots with higher gusts building in through mid-morning. At the
same time, periods of rain will become increasingly likely, with our
eastern terminals (ALI/CRP/VCT) showing a window for embedded
thunderstorms producing brief VSBY restrictions and lower CIGs.
Periods of MVFR and localized IFR are possible, especially during
the 08-14Z timeframe when the probabilities for storms is greatest.
By late morning to early afternoon Sunday, low CIGs will linger
behind the front. Most sites should return to mostly prevailing MVFR
with improving VSBYs. Strong northerly winds will persist through
tonight with winds diminishing to under 10 kts sustained closer to
midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A fresh (BF-5) south to southeasterly breeze will quickly change
north to northeasterly and strengthen to 20-30 knots in the wake of
a cold front later this morning, mainly between 4-7 AM. There is a
marginal risk for strong to severe storms ahead of the front,
capable of large hail and damaging winds, mainly north of Port
Aransas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday
night, before a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northerly breeze takes
over. Rain chance increase to a medium to high (50-75%) chance
tonight through Monday night. By Monday night, high pressure surges
in bringing with it drier air and reduced rain chances through
midweek. The surge of high pressure will also return a strong
northerly breeze through Tuesday morning. Onshore flow returns
briefly midweek. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms
return mid-to-late in the week in association with our next frontal
system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through this next
week along with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday
following a strong cold front early this morning. Medium to high
chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Monday in
association with the frontal passage as well as the formation and
subsequent stalling of a surface low off the coast. Additionally,
north-northeasterly winds will increase to 15-25 mph behind the
front. A brief lull in rain chances is expected after a reinforcing
surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into
Tuesday, but low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through
Friday as additional disturbances arrive. There are no elevated fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    61  45  53  45 /  40  50  70  20
Victoria          54  43  51  39 /  30  40  80  10
Laredo            61  46  58  49 /  10  40  20  10
Alice             60  44  53  44 /  20  60  60  10
Rockport          62  48  56  47 /  40  50  80  20
Cotulla           56  45  55  44 /  10  30  30  10
Kingsville        62  45  54  45 /  30  50  60  10
Navy Corpus       64  51  57  50 /  50  60  70  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232-
     236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82