762
FXUS64 KCRP 041117
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions due to potential minor coastal
  flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Sunday
  morning.

- Dangerous swimming conditions this weekend with a HIGH risk of
  rip. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"

- Daily low (20-40%) chance of showers and storms through next
  work week. "When thunder roars, go indoors."

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

No significant changes from the previous forecast package. A mid-
level low churns around Louisiana this weekend bringing occasional
bands of PVA on the backside over South Texas, before a mid-level
ridge builds over the south to southeast CONUS early next week. The
ridge will dominate heading into the middle of next week with model
discrepancies becoming more apparent mid to late next week with a
potential mid-level over the Yucatan Peninsula crossing the Bay of
Campeche. Moisture between the 50-75th percentile through Tuesday is
forecast to increase to above the 75th percentile mid to late in the
week, likely due to the potential enhance of tropical moisture.
Given the above normal moisture and interactions with this weekend`s
bands of PVA, surface heating, and the afternoon seabreeze, daily
low (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are warranted
through next Friday. Remember lightning safety if outdoors, "when
thunder roars, go indoors."

Hazardous beach and marine conditions remain our greatest concerns.
Minor coastal flooding potential will remain in play during high
tide through this weekend due to the full moon astronomical high
tide, increased swell periods, and northeasterly flow enhancing the
Ekman transport mechanism. These conditions also increase the risk
of rip currents with a high today and a moderate risk following into
Sunday. Temperatures will continue to trend above normal with highs
from the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Low chance for
isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Light winds
will vary from northeasterly to southeasterly. Low chances and low
confidence for fog tomorrow morning so have left out of TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A moderate to fresh east-northeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will persist
through this weekend, along with seas 4 to 6 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory for the open waters generally north of Port Aransas has
been extended through tonight, an expansion may be needed. Winds
will decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday morning
and shift back to an east-southeasterly flow Sunday night. Low to
medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast
through tonight before decreasing to low (20-40%) rain chances
beginning Sunday and continuing through the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Moisture increases today through next work week with minimum
relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component
ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds and
increased moisture will limit the fire risk. High temperatures will
continue to range from the low to mid 90s and daily low (20-40%)
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through next Friday,
mainly along the coast and afternoon seabreeze over the Coastal
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  73  89  74 /  20  20  20  10
Victoria          92  68  91  69 /  20  10  40  10
Laredo            94  71  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             93  69  93  70 /  20  10  20   0
Rockport          89  75  88  75 /  20  30  30  20
Cotulla           94  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  71  90  71 /  20  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       86  78  87  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ255-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80