Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
406 FXUS64 KCRP 180545 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front over the weekend. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains, and Victoria Crossroads Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-60%) across S TX on Thursday through Friday ahead of a cold front. - There is a low to medium chance of a Small Craft Advisory Wednesday through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Models have continued to struggle with the set up for the rest of the week and into early next week. With so much uncertainty in the guidance, a few small changes were needed for tonight`s forecast package. Light streamer showers are still possible through Wednesday morning over the coastal waters and along the coast so silent PoPs (<15%) will remain in the forecast. Low (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday as a weak shortwave approaches the area and interacts with deep moisture. While this was included previously, the areal coverage for these chances has gotten smaller, with most of the rain to the north of us. The extreme northern portions of the Brush Country and Coastal Plains, along with the Coastal Bend, will see 10-20% chances for rain, and the Victoria Crossroads will experience a 20-40% chance of rain. Rain chances are still expected to increase Thursday through Friday as deep moisture (PWAT values around 1.7") continues to linger over the area and a boundary moves through Central Texas. There is still some question over whether we should consider this a "cold front" or a "prefrontal trough." Regardless of what we call it, the global models are doing a slightly better job with the timing of this feature even though they disagree on what the feature actually is. The boundary/cold front will likely move into the area Thursday/Thursday night, then stall along the coast. This will help us out with some rain chances for Thursday into Friday so there is a low to medium chance (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. A secondary surge of high pressure will push this boundary all the way through, with cooler and drier air behind it. A low (20-40%) chance of showers will linger through the weekend with cooler temperatures. We have mentioned the potential for some strong storms with this boundary, but concerns are waning as we get closer to its arrival. Conditions would have to line up nearly perfectly for us to really see anything interesting so chances are very low that we will see strong to severe storms. As for flooding concerns, it is possible that we could see some localized flash flooding in areas with high rainfall rates, but we are dry and in desperate need of rain so chances for flooding are very low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions is expected through early Tuesday morning across area terminals, followed by VFR levels the rest of the cycle. Fog tonight is forecast to be more patchy than the last few nights, with mostly MVFR levels in place due to low ceilings. Winds will be light out of the south to southeast overnight, with breezy conditions developing in the afternoon. Winds will decrease again Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) through Wednesday. Winds will further increase to a fresh to occasionally strong Wednesday night through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds are expected to shift to the east then northeast either Friday or Saturday as a cold front moves across the Coastal Waters. Rain chances increase through the latter half of this week, with a medium chance (30-60%). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40% across South Texas, limiting our fire weather concerns. Winds will strengthen by the middle of the week ahead of a boundary/cold front. This boundary will move through South Texas Thursday night/Friday. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 70 86 71 / 10 0 10 10 Victoria 86 66 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 Laredo 92 72 92 72 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 90 67 90 68 / 10 0 0 10 Rockport 82 71 83 71 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 90 70 90 70 / 10 0 0 10 Kingsville 89 68 88 68 / 10 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 73 82 73 / 10 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...ANM/88