174
FXUS64 KCRP 291740
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1140 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions, HIGH risk of rip currents through
this afternoon

- Marginal risk for severe storms and flash flooding tonight ahead
of a cold front early Sunday morning, mainly over the Victoria
Crossroads

- Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night
  into early Sunday morning, then again Sunday night through Monday

- Near freezing wind chills over our northern counties early
  Monday morning and Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The strong cold front we`ve been focused on the past few days
remains on track to surge through South Texas between midnight and 7
AM Sunday. Ahead of and along the front, environmental conditions
may be conducive for strong to severe storms, mainly over the
Victoria Crossroads where a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk is
intact. MUCAPE climbs to 1500-2000 J/kg with effective shear near 40
knots and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threats. The threat of high rain
rates with storms both ahead and along the front, also poses a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the same area.

Once the front passes, a surface low is expected to develop over the
northwest Gulf, keeping the boundary in close proximity to the Texas
Coast. This will allow for isentropic lift and mid-level PVA to
contribute additional medium to high (50-80%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday night through Monday. A reinforcing surge
of high pressure will push through late Monday night into Tuesday
morning, diminishing rain chances significantly through Wednesday.

A surface coastal trough looks to develop ahead of the next cold
front late in the work week. Models are not in good agreement and
therefore confidence is low in timing/strength of this front.
Nonetheless, PWAT values will extend well above normal between 1.5-
2.0" and coincide with plenty of mid-level PVA downstream of a
positively tilted trough over the SW CONUS, allowing for a low to
medium chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the work week.

Below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the
50s Monday and lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s. More seasonal
temperatures return late in the work week with highs back in the 60s
to lower 70s and lows from the upper 40s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A moist, unsettled pattern will persist through the period as a
strong cold front approaches and moves through South Texas. Ahead
of the front this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions will
dominate with gusty southerly winds of 20-30 knots. Speeds
gradually diminish tonight. Around the 08-10Z timeframe,
conditions begin to deteriorate from north to south as the front
propagates in. Winds quickly shift to become north-northeasterly
and strengthen to sustained speeds of 15-20 knots with higher
gusts developing through mid-morning. At the same time, periods of
rain will become increasingly likely, with our eastern terminals
(ALI/CRP/VCT) showing a window for embedded thunderstorms
producing brief VSBY restrictions and lower CIGs. Periods of MVFR
and localized IFR are possible, especially during the 08-14Z
timeframe when the probabilities for storms is greatest. By late
morning and early afternoon Sunday, most sites should return to
prevailing VFR or MVFR with improving VSBYs, though low CIGs may
linger behind the front. Strong northerly winds will persist into
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Southeasterly winds of 20-30 knots will continue through this
morning, before weakening slightly to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) this
afternoon. Although there will likely be a lull in Small Craft
Advisory conditions tonight, a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through Sunday as a strong cold front will push through early
Sunday morning and quickly return strong north to northeasterly
winds in the wake. Offshore winds fall to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
early next week with onshore flow returning Wednesday. Low rain
chances today will increase to a high, 60-90% chance, tonight
through Monday night. Medium to high chances of showers and
thunderstorms return mid to late next work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through next work
week with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday following
a strong cold front early Sunday morning. Medium to high chances for
showers and thunderstorms tonight through Monday. A brief lull in
rain chances after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes
through late Monday night into Tuesday. Low to medium rain chances
return Wednesday through Friday. There are no elevated fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  53  62  45 /  20  50  30  60
Victoria          79  46  54  42 /  50  80  30  50
Laredo            82  54  62  46 /   0  10  20  50
Alice             83  51  60  41 /  10  50  30  60
Rockport          80  54  63  46 /  30  60  40  60
Cotulla           80  51  56  42 /  10  20  10  40
Kingsville        82  53  63  43 /  10  50  30  60
Navy Corpus       79  58  67  50 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...KRS/98