Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
533 FXUS64 KCRP 020529 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due to minor coastal flooding. - Increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to rip currents this weekend. Please use caution at the beach! - Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday into early next week. When thunder roars, go indoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 We`ll start off today mainly dry across the area with only a very low (10%) chance of showers/storms along the seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains this afternoon as moisture starts to increase. A broad mid-level low over the northern Gulf Coast will sag southwest into the northwestern Gulf this weekend, then slowly move westward into Mexico early next week before a mid-level ridge dominates over the southern Great Plains the middle of next week. Being in the vicinity of the mid-level low will induce mid-level lift support and increase moisture to near the 75th percentile with PWATs (1.5-1.75"). This combination in addition to surface heating and the afternoon seabreeze, will allow for a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily beginning Friday and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances will remain over the open waters, coast, and along the seabreeze. Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous beach conditions this weekend, with minor coastal flooding becoming more likely and an increased risk of rip currents. Although ensemble uncertainty (10-90th percentile) remains quite high between 1.7-2.0ft MSL at Aransas Pass, there are several factors in play: astronomical high tide approaching with a full moon phase, swell periods around 8 seconds, and moderate northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. Please use caution if going to the beach! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period across the region. There`s a low (10%) chance for fog and reduced VSBYs at ALI from around 10Z-13Z but confidence is low so have left out of TAF. Winds expected to remain light and variable for most of the period becoming east/southeast by around 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A light to gentle northeasterly to easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue through Thursday night before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) Friday and continuing through Saturday evening, hovering around advisory criteria. Winds are expected to decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds shifting east to southeasterly early next week. Low shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night, then increase to a medium to high, 50-80% chance this weekend. Medium rain chances of 30-50% will persist heading into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 72 90 74 / 0 0 40 20 Victoria 94 68 92 67 / 10 0 30 10 Laredo 96 72 96 71 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 95 68 93 69 / 10 0 30 10 Rockport 91 74 89 75 / 0 10 50 30 Cotulla 97 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 68 91 71 / 10 0 40 20 Navy Corpus 88 77 87 78 / 10 10 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80