Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
697 FXUS64 KCRP 232336 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 536 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to northern portions of the area. - A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 After a wet day and a half, rain chances are expected to quickly taper off this afternoon. Most of the area will dry out the next couple of days, except for the Victoria Crossroads where low to medium (30-55%) rain chances are expected Monday and Monday night. As we head towards the middle of the week, most of South Texas will continue drying out with only low chances for showers (20-40%) across the Southern Brush Country. Rain chances could return next weekend, but high uncertainty kept rain chances low below 50%. Our next chance to break this stretch of above normal temperatures will be mid to late next week with the arrival of our next cold front just in time for Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail early in the TAF period, though increasing low-level moisture and a strengthening south-southeasterly flow will contribute to a gradual lowering of CIGs to prevailing MVFR overnight. South-southeasterly winds will generally remain around 8-15 knots overnight, with occasional gusts near 20 knots over our western terminals. By late Monday morning into the afternoon, mixing will increase and CIGs will begin to lift. Breezy to windy conditions will develop as southerly flow strengthens to 15-20 knots with higher gusts, particularly along the Coastal Plains, while winds shift to the west-northwest across the Brush Country. Isolated convection cannot be ruled out late in the period near the Victoria Crossroads, where a PROB30 group was included to indicate potential for brief -TSRA and associated reductions in VSBY beginning around 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A fresh breeze (BF 5) will continue through Monday before decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Monday night continuing through Tuesday night. A fresh to strong breeze will return to the Gulf waters Wednesday morning. Rain chances will quickly taper off tonight before low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Monday night through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through most of the period, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region, except for Tuesday and Wednesday, where minimum values could drop the the 25-40% range for the northwestern Brush Country. While RH values will drop those two days, Energy Release Component values are expected to remain between the 25-50th percentile with light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 85 68 85 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 67 85 63 84 / 10 40 50 10 Laredo 72 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 10 Alice 67 89 64 87 / 0 10 10 10 Rockport 72 84 70 84 / 10 20 30 10 Cotulla 69 83 58 86 / 10 20 10 0 Kingsville 69 88 66 87 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 75 82 72 81 / 0 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...KRS/98