Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
140 FXUS64 KCRP 201931 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Low to medium rain chances through early next week, with greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas. - Warmer than normal temperatures continue through early next week before more seasonal conditions take hold. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A slow moving cold front remains on track to push through Texas this afternoon and evening before stalling just north of South Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning. Positive vorticity advection from the front will interact with PWAT values of 1.6-1.75" which will promote the development of showers, however, the limited instability and lift in the 700-850mb level will the limiting factor to heavy rainfall and beneficial rainfall. With the stalled front and deep moisture pooled over South Texas, rain chances will remain elevated (35-60%) through the weekend before rain chances taper off early next week. Rainfall accumulations for the remainder of this week through the weekend are expected to remain between 0.25-1" across most of South Texas with the Victoria Crossroads region being the only area likely to see accumulation over 1" (1-2"). Our next chance to break this stretch of above normal temperatures will be mid to late next week with the arrival of our next cold front just in time for Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout this TAF cycle for ALI and CRP. For the other sites, MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible early tomorrow morning between 11-15z. All sites should return to VFR by mid-morning around 16z. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly winds will continue through before becoming more moderate (BF 4) Friday through Sunday, keeping seas generally in the 3-5 ft range. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend as an upper-level disturbance approaches. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen to fresh to strong (BF5-6) early next week ahead of the next frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through early next week, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region. Winds have increased to 10-15 mph ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, though the boundary itself is not expected to make significant southward progress into South Texas. With abundant low- level moisture in place and the front lingering nearby, low to moderate rain chances (30-60%) will persist through the weeekend. Another front is forecast to move through early next week. In its wake, minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35% across the Brush Country. However, lighter winds between 5-10 mph should keep fire weather concerns minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 87 70 84 / 10 20 30 60 Victoria 67 86 65 83 / 10 40 40 50 Laredo 71 88 71 86 / 10 10 20 60 Alice 68 90 67 85 / 10 20 30 60 Rockport 73 85 70 82 / 10 20 40 50 Cotulla 68 85 67 83 / 30 20 30 60 Kingsville 68 90 68 86 / 0 20 20 60 Navy Corpus 74 83 73 81 / 10 20 30 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84