Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
967 FXUS64 KCRP 152308 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 508 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through early next week. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country and medium chances (30-50%) across the northern Coastal Plains beginning Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-70%) across S TX on Thursday ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 High pressure aloft will begin to shift southeast and flatten out as a long wave trough digs southeastward into the Pacific NW and CA. Despite the high pressure shifting away from S TX, temperatures will remain above normal through mid week ahead of the next cold front. Models have delayed the timing of the cold front and now indicate a it moving through S TX late Thursday night into Friday morning. Given the uncertainty in timing, will continue to monitor and adjust as the latest data becomes available. Models are also a tad higher than the previous model runs on PoPs Wednesday-Friday. There is a low to medium chance for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country and medium chances (30-50%) across the northern Coastal Plains beginning Wednesday in response to increasing low level moisture and the approach of a strengthening long wave trough. Chances increase across S TX to a medium to high chance (30-70%) on Thursday ahead of and along the cold front. Rain chances are expected to decrease from northwest to southeast through the day Friday as drier/cooler air advects into S TX. However, a low (10-20%) chance continues into the weekend possibly due to isentropic lift. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected each morning through early next week, mainly inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Brief periods of visibilities down to a 1/4 of a mile will be possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue through most of the TAF cycle. Patchy to areas of fog will develop early Sunday morning so have prevailing MVFR/IFR conditions by 09Z across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Anticipate periods of LIFR conditions for VCT and ALI so have included TEMPO groups from 10Z-14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will persist through the weekend before increasing to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday night. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday, increasing winds to fresh to strong late Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze and shift to the southwest to west Thursday night. Winds will shift to the north to northeast Friday behind a cold front. Rain chances increase the middle of next week ahead of the cold front, with a medium chance (40-60%) as the cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Light winds and continuing moisture advection will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. The next chance for rain will be the middle of next week as a cold front approaches South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 66 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 62 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 62 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 63 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 71 81 72 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...LS/77