070
FXUS64 KCRP 282042
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
242 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions ahead of front, HIGH risk of rip
  currents tonight through Saturday

- Cold front early Sunday morning with reinforcing surge of high
  pressure Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Low (20-40%) chance of showers through tonight, increasing to
  moderate (40-60%) Saturday through Monday, greatest chances over
  Victoria Crossroads

- Near to below freezing wind chills early morning Monday through
  Wednesday from Victoria to La Salle counties

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Showers will remain possible through the remainder of the day in
association with the aforementioned mid-level shortwave.
Anteceding the cold front, with a very moist atmosphere present,
MLCAPE forecasted to be around 1000 J/kg, and sufficient shear
aloft a marginal severe has been maintained including portions of
South Texas. The primary area will be the Victoria Crossroads and
portions of the Coastal Bend. The expected impacts will be
"marginal hail" and damaging winds (per SPC). The expected timing
for these storms will be Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances look to linger in part due to a
surface low and residual vorticity remaining in the region at
least through Monday.

Now to the flip side of this cold front, lower temperatures are
obviously going to be expected with this front. With the presence
of strong cold air advection, widespread cloudy skies, and rainy
conditions highs will only reach the 50s and 60s to begin the
work week. Lows are expected to be in the 30s and 40s across the
region beginning Monday night lasting through Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Though some of our drainage areas can
potentially see temperatures approaching freezing, widespread
freezing temperature chances remain low at this time. Feels like
temperature values (Apparent Temperatures) will likely be around
freezing in some spots however with values in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, coolest values look to be Monday night into Tuesday
morning. The areas most likely to experience this will be the
northern portions of the region (La Salle extending to Victoria).

With the presence of strong onshore flow today through likely the
early part of next week, a high risk of rip currents will likely
persist along the Middle Texas Coast.

By Wednesday, onshore flow should return to the region resulting
in a gradual warming trend across the area ahead of, you guessed
it, another cold front! Rain chances will accompany this front as
well as well as persisting cooler temperatures. Highs will top in
70s with lows predominately in the 50s.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period. Periods of
showers will be possible across the region excluding VCT. Some
periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible after sunset lasting
through the end of the cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Fresh to strong breeze will persist through Saturday night. A
Small Craft Advisory will remains in effect through Saturday.
There is high confidence a strong cold front will pass through
early Sunday morning, leading to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7)
north to northeasterly winds in the wake, diminishing to fresh to
strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night into Tuesday. Low rain chances today
will increase to a medium to high chance of 50-90% Saturday
through Monday, then decrease to a low chance Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% into early next
week. A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms will
exist Friday through Monday, with greatest chances over the Victoria
Crossroads. Although a cold front will pass through early Sunday
morning with a reinforcing surge of high pressure on Tuesday,
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. Below normal
temperatures dominate into the middle of next week following the
cold front Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  80  51  57 /  20  20  70  40
Victoria          61  79  45  54 /  30  50  80  20
Laredo            67  81  54  57 /  10  10  10  20
Alice             64  82  48  55 /  10  20  50  30
Rockport          68  80  51  59 /  30  40  80  40
Cotulla           64  80  50  56 /  20  10  20  10
Kingsville        66  83  50  58 /  10  10  50  40
Navy Corpus       70  78  55  62 /  30  30  70  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through
     Saturday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92