Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
741 FXUS64 KCRP 182314 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 514 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 504 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Low to medium rain chances into early next week, greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas - Warmer than normal temperatures continue && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 An unsettled weather pattern ahead with a slow moving Pacific storm system across Texas this week, followed by a mid-upper level Pacific low pressure system early next week. Moisture will pool in the warm sector across much of the eastern half of Texas Wednesday as the cold front moves into West Texas and the panhandle, raising PWAT values to around 1.75" (nearing the 99th percentile) and introducing low rain chances across the area. The cold front will push eastward across Texas through Friday, but will struggle to extend southward and push through South Texas. The proximity of the boundary enforcing low-level convergence along with a surface pre-frontal trough and above normal moisture, will increase rain chances (30- 60%) Thursday through Friday, focused mainly north of Kleberg County. Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) will continue through this weekend into early next week as the aforementioned cold front retreats northward as a warm front ahead of our next mid-level low from the Pacific approaches Texas and likely pushes a north-south oriented cold front through. Overall, there remains distinct differences in the synoptic flow between the GEFS and ECENS as evident in recent cluster analysis. The ECENS favors a less progressive and southern extent to the mid- level trough, resulting in a wetter solutions, whereas the GEFS is more progressive with the trough and a drier solution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 504 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail alongside winds between 10-15 knots, for the next few hours. Winds will then fall below 10 knots overnight. Generally clear to partly cloudy skies this evening and light southeasterly winds will set the stage for a round of foggy conditions for ALI, CRP, and VCT between 09-14Z, coupled with MVFR/IFR CIGs across the area 07-09Z. MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the morning before improving to VFR around noon. A few streamer showers can`t be ruled out over the Victoria Crossroads Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low in timing and location to include a mention of precipitation in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Generally, a moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) of 10- 20 knots and seas 3-5 feet will persist through this weekend. There will be low shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week, with medium chances (40-50%) Friday through Saturday. Another cold front is looking more likely to pass through the waters early next week, but confidence is low on specific timing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40% across South Texas into early next week, limiting our fire weather concerns. Winds will strengthen by the middle of the week ahead of a boundary/cold front. This boundary will struggle to move across South Texas. Given the above normal moisture and nearby boundary, low to medium (20-60%) will persist through Friday, dropping slightly to 20-45% Saturday through Monday. A stronger north to south oriented Pacific cold front is projected to move across South Texas early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 86 71 84 / 10 10 20 40 Victoria 67 87 66 84 / 10 30 10 50 Laredo 72 92 72 89 / 0 10 10 40 Alice 68 89 68 87 / 10 10 20 50 Rockport 72 83 71 82 / 10 20 20 40 Cotulla 70 89 70 86 / 0 20 40 70 Kingsville 69 88 69 86 / 10 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 74 81 74 81 / 10 10 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...KRS/98