434
FXUS61 KCTP 291804
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
104 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A quick-hitting system will bring snow showers (north) and
  showers of a a wintry mix (south) late tonight and Sunday.
* A more widespread/significant winter storm is possible on
  Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast progressing nicely except cloud cover where adjustments
upward were made across the board for 0-12hrs based on current
sat and trends. S-- across the NE is almost done. Starting to
look into Sun and Tues.

Prev...
High pressure is beginning to build in early this morning,
currently centered over Virginia. A few lingering lake effect
clouds and flurries will end by daybreak Saturday. Subsidence
associated with rising heights should erode the low clouds
during the late morning and early afternoon, but high and mid
clouds ahead of our next weather maker will overspread the area
during the afternoon. The sun in the southeastern half of the
CWA will last thru a good part of the day.

Highs today will still be on the chilly side - ranging from the
low 30s in the northwest mountains to near 40 south and east of
the I-80/I-99 corridor. Despite the cool temperatures, light
winds and some sunshine make today an ideal day to get outdoor
holiday decorations hung up or last minute yard work done if
you haven`t already (ideal relative to our upcoming stretch of
weather at least).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong low pressure system that is bringing significant
snowfall across the Midwest today will lift across the Great
Lakes on Sunday and drag precipitation across our region. Lift
ahead of that system will bring some warm advection snow to
western PA after dark. The majority of models and the meso
ensembles all make very little precip for the SE third of the
CWA on Sunday. What does manage to hit the ground there would
likely be a mix in the morning or plain rain from late AM on as
temps warm up thru the day. Light snow will be the predominant
precip type for the northern mtns. The best QPF is in the NW,
too. The first swipe at snow totals there could be near 3 inches
in our NW 5-6 counties, and near 2" in the NE. But, that would
be the worst of it as the air is very dry with little moisture
coming in from the Gulf. Very little signal for freezing rain
that lasts more than an hour, but it is worth mentioning inside
the broader collection of "wintry mix."

Opted not to issue Winter Weather Advisories yet with lingering
uncertainty owing to weak forcing and unimpressive moisture
profiles. Regardless, travel impacts are possible north of I-80
on Sunday morning into early afternoon. After a trailing
occluded/cold front sweeps through Sunday afternoon, west winds
will kick up with gusts 25 to 35mph likely. A few lake effect
snow showers are possible in northwest PA Sunday evening into
the first part of the night, with another inch or two of
accumulation possible. Precipitation will quickly taper off from
west to east late Sunday evening into early Monday as high
pressure builds in, so Monday should be dry (and not too
different from today/Saturday).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December
as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong
baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains
should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the
precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move
out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the
base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing
increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday.

The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with
the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance
of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a
deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing
juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce
significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive
later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on
Monday, though confidence is still low on timing given the
spread in current guidance this far out. The eventual track and
intensity of the low will have big implications on observed
snowfall totals and the northward extent of any mix/rain
scenarios.

The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid
equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%)
across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected
in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a
30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast
PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline
probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up
through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher
amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this
time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet
for most of the region. Guidance has remained consistent overall
for snowfall amounts with the last two runs, however some
uncertainty remains whether or not warm nosing above the surface
could limit snow across the PA/MD boarder. Continue to monitor
the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to
travel.

Later in the week, high pressure will regain control of our
weather. Prevailing upper troughing brings high confidence in
continued below normal temperatures and a chilly start to
December. Low temperatures in the teens or single digits are
possible and our active storm pattern appears likely to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly clear skies to end the afternoon in southern PA with
scattered low clouds hanging on across the north. KBFD remains
in MVFR with those low ceilings, but elsewhere is VFR and should
remain VFR through the early evening hours tonight. Snow will
begin to overspread the area from the northwest and western
mountains around 06Z tonight. The highest confidence in
reductions to flight conditions is at BFD/JST/AOO. IFR is likely
at BFD with the heaviest snow expected over that terminal.
Further south near JST and AOO snow is likely before
transitioning to a rain snow mix by mid morning. Precipitation
will take the longest to reach the southeast with MDT and LNS
holding the highest chances to remain VFR throughout this TAF
package.

Once this system clears out, Monday will be relatively dry with
low ceilings hanging on for MVFR to IFR flight categories
before the next snow storm is expected across all of central PA
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
AVIATION...Bowen