339
FXUS61 KCTP 050400
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1100 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Arctic high pressure brings plummeting temperatures overnight
  with record lows Friday morning
* A weak area of low pressure will likely bring a light
  snowfall to much of Central and Northern PA late Sunday into
  Sunday night.
* Reinforcing cold pattern locks in below average temperatures
  through the second week of December.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies are now clear across virtually all of the area, aside from
some high clouds generally south of I-76. High pressure is
taking control as an Arctic airmass settles in. As winds
continue to go calm, temperatures are dropping like a rock.
Dewpoints in the single digits, light winds, and clear skies
along with some snow cover mean it will be very cold tonight.

Low temps around sunrise Fri will be in the single digits
across the Alleghenies and Laurels. See the Climate section
below for current records for the 5th of December.

A weak wave of low pressure will slide by to our south on
Friday. Recent guidance has trended even farther south with
this system resulting in PoPs < 5% in our area. We`ll see
continued high and mid clouds on the north side of this system,
but snow flurries are the worst we expect north of the Mason-
Dixon line at this point.

Temps rebound nicely on Friday. However maxes will struggle to
reach 32F, even in the warmer locations thanks to the arctic
air and a shield of sun-dimming mid and high clouds streaming
overhead from the near-miss wave to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WAA later Friday/Friday night and variable amounts of mid and
high clouds should keep temps 8-18F milder than Thursday night.
An approaching trough will make it a bit more windy on Saturday
with some lake effect snow in extreme northwest PA.

By Sunday, zonal flow over PA will be accompanied by an
approaching weak Colorado low. Accumulating snow is favored in
northwest PA (north and west of the I-99/I-80 corridor) with
Advisory amounts possible toward Lake Erie. Still some
uncertainty with the exact track/intensity of the low pressure
center, but snow is favored north of I-80 with a chance for a
rain/snow mix farther south.

The low will also drag a cold front through later Sunday,
bringing a renewed shot of cold air and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term will be characterized by below average
temperatures and an active, but not overly snowy pattern.
Prevailing upper troughing means we`ll have periodic reinforcing
shots of cold air infiltrating the Commonwealth preceded by
waves of low pressure.

The northern stream storm track means we shouldn`t have too much
moisture to contend with in any given storm. Low temperatures
will range from the single digits and teens on the coldest
nights to twenties when there are more clouds. Until the lakes
get some ice on them, we`ll continue to see lake effect snow
showers in the northwest as well.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move across central PA tonight, resulting in
decreasing winds and cold conditions. A few streamers of MVFR
stratus will persist across the NW including BFD through 02-03z.
Otherwise, only high clouds or clear skies are expected for
much of the night. However after 09z, stratus will begin
creeping up northward through Pennsylvania`s Alleghenies. MVFR
cigs are expected at all TAF sites on Friday, first at JST by
11-13z, then north and east through the day and finally up to
BFD and IPT by 17-21z Fri. There is a slight chance of snow
flurries across mainly the southern tier.

Outlook...
Sat...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the NW

Sun...A compact but more amplified upper level trough with a preceding
low level south to southwesterly wind max will likely bring a 4
to 6 hour period of mainly light snow with IFR vsbys and MVFR to
IFR CIGS (targeting mainly Central and Northern PA) late
Sunday/Sunday night.

Mon...Mainly VFR

Tue...Snow/restrictions possible mostly in the second half of
the day

&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures in the wake of the Arctic Front will bring
frigid temperatures to central Pennsylvania, the coldest of this
winter thus far. Multiple locations across the area will be
challenging record low temperatures on December 5th:

Location|Record
Harrisburg | 12 (1926)
Williamsport |   8 (1926)
Bradford | 0 (2007)
Altoona | 13 (1966)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
CLIMATE...NPB