664
FXUS61 KCTP 030410
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1110 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* More in the way of sunshine on Wednesday as milder
  temperatures eat away at existing snowfall southeast of the
  Allegheny Front.
* Arctic cold front delivers snow showers (squalls?) Thursday
  morning, gusty winds Thursday afternoon, and frigid
  temperatures Thursday night.
* Below normal temperatures continue into next week with chances
  for snow every few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Starting to see the clouds erode away in a few spots around the
area late this evening and expecting that trend to continue all
the way into Wednesday afternoon. Northwest winds will continue
to facilitate downslope flow and decreasing clouds east of the
Alleghenies.

Slushy areas and standing water from melting snow may result in
slick spots/black ice tonight into Wednesday morning with lows
in the teens and 20s.

Wednesday looks pleasant as high pressure builds in. Still won`t
totally clear the clouds in the Alleghenies, but it should be
dry for all of the region. Southwest winds will pick up a bit in
the afternoon gusting to 15 or 20mph, especially in northwest
PA. High temperatures will range from near 30 northwest to near
40 southeast. Sunshine southeast of the Allegheny Front and
temperatures above freezing should put a dent in existing snow
cover. A loop of satellite imagery could look pretty neat
tomorrow evening watching the snow melt away.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An arctic cold front will plow southeast across the Lower Great
Lakes late Wednesday night and reach northwest PA by early
Thursday morning. Light snow/snow showers should accompany the
front over the western and northern Alleghenies and could spill
into the central ridge and valley region. SNSQ risk parameter is
not particularly high, likely due to limited instability thanks
to the low sun angle as we approach the Winter Solstice. Even
still, a few stronger snow showers/squalls could create travel
impacts on Thursday morning. Fcst snow amounts are light (1" or
less) and largely confined to the western high terrain, but
travel impacts are possible along the I-99/I-80 corridor. Have
added mention of snow shower potential all the way down to I-81
at this point, though confidence definitely decreases with
southeastward extent.

Temps will plunge behind the front as brisk NW flow sends
readings falling NW->SE by Thursday afternoon. Building high
pressure will hep slacken winds, clear out our skies, and
promote ideal radiational cooling with a fresh snowpack. This
combination will help lows plummet into the single digits and
low teens Thursday night into Friday morning with subzero wind
chills over the higher elevations in the Laurels and northwest
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold end to the week with fcst highs below the freezing mark in
most of the CWA.

Low track remains uncertain for Friday with the potential for
snow to brush the southern tier of CPA. Otherwise, model trends
favor occasional snow showers downwind of Lake Erie over the
weekend and possible clipper system during the first part of
next week. No major winter storms are expected over the next
week, but temperatures will remain below the historical average
for early December.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the coastal low now departing New England, NW flow will
continue to bring IFR or low end MVFR cigs across central PA.
Improvements to VFR are expected to occur first at MDT and LNS (by
06z Wed), given subsidence in that area. Very light snow or
light freezing drizzle remains possible in upslope areas of the
Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns and will prevail through the first
half of tonight. Winds will shift around from NW to SW by Wed
morning.

Ceilings and vsbys in the Central Mtns and Susq Valley will
slowly improve to mainly VFR from south to north between the
predawn hours and afternoon Wed. Restrictions are likely to
linger for much of the day in the Laurels and possibly all the
way through Wed night in the NW mountains.

Outlook...

Thu...Cold FROPA, snow showers esp north, gusty west winds

Fri...Cold start to the day with temps 0-15F. Slight chance of
snow across the southern half of central PA with restrictions
possible.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the
NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert