454
FXUS61 KCTP 102029
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
329 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Wintry precipitation will continue to fall over the north and
  western highlands as temperatures fall on the back side of the
  departing surface low.
* Lake-effect and upslope snow showers will be heaviest Mon
  night into Tues, along with the coldest temperatures of the
  season thus far.
* Temperatures should begin to moderate by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Snow struggling to stick almost anywhere it is snowing. The
cellular showers are so small and the sun is still making it
thru in spots - making it tough to stick. Webcams across the NW
this aftn show almost no accum in many places SE of Kane. Even
in the Laurels, only very! brief forays below 2sm visby have
been occurring. This is in line with all the forecasts.

What will change to make it stick is that the sun will set, the
sfc temps will drop: grass first, then bridge decks then,
lastly, roads. The flow will also start to back and a better
Huron connection will fatten up a big band or a few heavier
bands and these will last all night and morning. The band
orientation will be mainly NW-SE thru the night. As is usual, it
will be tough to get more than a dusting to the SE of the
Allegheny Front. However, some will make snow into Happy Valley
and the lower West Branch valley. The accumulations will be
minimal, and have only mentioned less than an inch in general
there. Other than that tweak, the forecast snow amounts for the
overnight still look good.

Planning no changes to the WWAs - but did strongly consider
extending the warning and advys into the late aftn or even into
the early evening. Many times, I think, forecasters tend to try
to end the lake effect a little too early. But, we`ll mention
that possibility onto the next shifts.

The currently wet roads will start to freeze up if not treated,
and slick spots will be likely. It is the first snow of the
season for many people. Allow extra time for travel and taking
care of the shoveling, etc. and not rush to get places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Our lastest thinking is almost the same as the previous
reasonings. But, one difference is that the snow bands may stick
around longer into the aftn - and maybe early evening. While the
worst/heaviest of the snow will be during the morning, some
bands could linger. After collaboration with neighbors, we
decided to not extend (in time) the warning and advisories in
the north. Will advise the next shifts on this possible change
to watch for if trends continue. Otherwise, te backing flow will
gradually take away/break up our Huron connection, and break the
bigger band(s) into smaller ones, and lay them out more west to
east (vs NW-SE that will previal tonight and early AM). Temps do
rise again, but stay cold enough for accums on the grassy
surfaces/dead leaves/trees during the day. Roads will have a
chance to warm up and make it more difficult for it to stick
there. Maxes will be just above freezing in most places which
will receive snow, and upper 30s to lower 40s SE of the
Allegheny Front. Just the tops of the highest hills of the NW
and Laurels will stay below freezing.

The lake effect machine will be completely out of our hair in
the late aftn/early evening. But, a quick-moving upper level
system will direct a patch of light precip across MI and nrn OH
into far nrn PA and wrn NY Tuesday night. Any accums will be
<1" overnight. So, the break in snow may not last more than
12hrs, if even 6 hours along the NY border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place through the end of
the week, keeping the chance for rain and snow showers in the
forecast each day through Friday, especially over northwest PA.
A tight pressure gradient will allow for winds gusts in the 30
to 35 mph range Wednesday, with some guidance suggesting the
potential for gusts over the Laurel Highlands to approach 40 to
45 mph.

The December-like cold airmass is forecast to retreat later in
the week, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal
averages. High pressure looks build in from the southwest Friday
into early Sunday, which should keep us mainly dry into the
beginning of the weekend.

Another northern stream upper shortwave traversing the Northern
Plains will reach the Great Lakes early in the weekend and
support a low pressure/frontal system that will move across PA
Sunday into next Monday. At this point, this system appears to
be not as strong or as cold as our current one, so any precip
looks to be mainly in the form of rain/rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NW flow means only one thing in November (and December and
Jan...): Lake effect snow. It is a classic situation, this one.
The mean wind flow will make for a good two-lake (Huron + Erie)
connection. That means more moisture and heat flux/instability
for the NW mtns. The band or bands will be NW-SE oriented
overnight, then we should have backing flow in the late night
and morning which should make them more W-E oriented. As the
morning progresses, mositure over the Laurels (JST) will
decrease as it lifts northward, ending the threat of snow there
by noon (or earlier). Some longer bands should reach into IPT
and UNV, and could bring brief forays into IFR, probably not
LIFR. But, a small cellular snow shower crossed Hap Val a few
hrs ago and brought the vsby down to 1/2sm for a very brief
time. IFR will be most-possible (50%) during the few hours
around sunrise for UNV and IPT (like 09-14Z).

Expect BFD to have the worst of it. BFD will be down in IFR and
LIFR in snow showers for much of the night and much of the
morning. While the bands should be lifting N/NE in the aftn,
there will still be some nearby until late aftn. They should be
lighter and thinner after noon - so less chance (30%) of IFR.

Gusty west sfc wind will make it that much more unpleasant and
unfriendly for flying. Mechanical mixing will bring 30-35KT
gusts with the highest speeds/gusts late tonight and all day
Tues.

Not much break in wx for BFD, though, as warm advection from a
weak system will bring a patch of light precip (snow) across MI
and nrn OH into nrn PA and wrn NY later Tues night. This should
not be a big thing with only light accum poss. But, the wind
will again turn to the NW for Wed/Wed night and generate
additional, but relatively less, snow bands/showers. Expect the
normal IFR/low MVFR for BFD and JST, and MVFR for AOO-IPT-UNV.
VFR in the SE, of course. Still gusty.

Outlook...

Fri...Improvement expected, with winds diminishing and
lingering -SHSN across NW PA diminishing as well.

Sat...Dry, generally VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ005-010.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo