986
FXUS61 KCTP 020835
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Today will feature the coolest daytime temperatures until next
  wednesday or Thursday, with chilly/frosty conditions early
  this Thursday morning
* Temperatures rebound Friday before climbing to well above
  normal for early October this weekend into next week
* Our extended dry pattern continues with no rainfall and low
  humidity expected through Monday; next chance of rain Tue-Wed

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mainly clear and chilly with light wind early today. The only
weather feature to mention come in the form of some high clouds
drifting east/southeast across the state today.

High pressure (1033 mb) will drift from SE Canada (this morning)
to the Boston area by late this afternoon, providing a fairly
light E to SE breeze today

Opaque cloud cover (in the form of cirrus and cirrostratus)
shouldn`t exceed 40 percent at any location today or tonight.

Max temps this afternoon under a mixture of sunshines and
cirrus will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Another cool and crisp early October [Thursday] night with
partly cloudy skies and lows in 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will mark the start of a prolonged early Fall warming
trend with max temps in the 70s and lows 40-50F. We anticipate
some valley fog both nights with perhaps greater coverage
overnight Friday due to less mid/high cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly sunny and very warm days followed by comfortable sleeping
nights over the weekend into early next week. Highs will climb
well above the historical average for early October (+10-15F)
reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry air in place will keep
min temps closer to/but still above climo. No rainfall is
expected Saturday through Monday.

Model and ensemble mean consensus finally bring some rainfall
back into the picture by the middle of next week, with a cold
frontal passage projected around next Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM/WPC
blended QPF amounts within that 24 to 48 hr period are in the
0.10 to 0.75" range from SE to NW - so certainly not a drought
buster we will take what we can get.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect clear skies to prevail overnight. The potential for fog
is low (less than 20%), given the dry airmass and a slight
breeze.

Thursday into the weekend should feature sunny warm days and
cool nights. The potential for fog Thursday night into Friday
is a bit higher, as the pressure gradient is expected to be
weaker than this evening. There is no precipitation anticipated
over the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon: AM fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Bowen