251
FXUS61 KCTP 231953
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Gusty winds end this evening; fair and tranquil tonight-Monday
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday
* Windy and much colder with lake effect snow Thanksgiving Day
  through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Still can`t rule out a few quick moving rain/snow showers along
the NY border this afternoon. Otherwise continued breezy under
partly to mostly cloudy skies (more clouds north). Winds relax
into tonight, but stratocu should persist across the north-
central into the northeast quadrant of CPA on the backside of
departing upper trough under 850mb cold pool. Late night
radiational fog potential along the western Alleghenies beneath
sfc ridge and 1025mb high pressure center reaching southwest PA
by 12Z Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Good travel conditions are expected to start Thanksgiving week
with fair and tranquil weather on Monday. High and mid level
clouds will increase through Monday night as a milder warm
advection pattern quickly shifts downstream from Ohio Valley.
Light mixed precip could reach the southwest mtns as early as
12Z Tuesday, although the probability is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November. Periods of rain are
expected to move over the area Tuesday and Wednesday which
could slow holiday travel. Conditions turn breezy by Wednesday
afternoon ahead of a well-defined cold front poised to plow
through PA Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow is
expected to deliver much colder temperatures for Thanksgiving
Day. This pattern shift to cold/blustery WSW to WNW flow will
trigger lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline
into SW NY before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts later in
the week. Several inches of snow accumulation and significant
travel disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns. We
added the potential wind and lake effect snow hazards to the HWO
which will likely become key messages heading into peak
Thanksgiving holiday travel, Black Friday, etc.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon, particularly
west of UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots appear likely, with a few
gusts as high as 35 knots possible at JST and AOO. Winds will
taper off after sunset.

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the TAF period as
high pressure builds in. There could be some fog in northwest PA
overnight, perhaps forming close to KBFD, but restrictions
appear unlikely at this time.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu-Fri...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff