227
FXUS61 KCTP 191227
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
727 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Rain and wet/slushy snow ends early this morning and gives way
 to mostly cloudy conditions through Thursday
*Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and
 seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend
*Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
 cold pattern shift likely by the end of Thanksgiving week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Band of rain/snow will pivot eastward across CPA early this
morning. Thermal profiles have sufficiently cooled via wet bulb
effects to produce steady light to moderate snow either side of
the I-80 corridor with webcams indicating a slushy accumulation
on roadways. Snow amounts may exceed 1" on grassy/non-paved and
elevated surfaces particularly over the higher terrain of the
interior central mtns into the Coal region. SPS was issued to
account for potential travel impacts on slick/slushy roads
through the predawn and early morning commute.

Some areas of fog/mist/dz/fzdz could last into mid morning over
the Laurel Highlands. Precip ends/exits the LSV shortly after
12Z with partly to mostly cloudy conditions expected for the
rest of today through tonight. The cloud cover may reduce/prop-
up max/min temps by a few degrees with day/nighttime readings
slightly below/above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will provide mainly dry weather for most of
Thursday, but lingering low level moisture will keep clouds in
place for most of CPA. We would not rule out some pockets of
light rain or drizzle/fog across the Laurel Highlands later in
the day. Models show an increasing chance for light rain
spreading west to east Thursday night through Friday night.
Occasional rain signal likely peaks Friday night into early
Saturday morning based on blended model QPF followed by a north
to south drying trend into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Odds for rain decrease from north to south on Saturday with
high confidence in a dry end to the weekend (Saturday night
through Sunday). Seasonably mild conditions continue through
early next week with timing of next round of rain still
uncertain (probably sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday window).
The key message for next week will be the significant pattern
shift to colder weather projected to unfold after Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak surface low and its supporting potent but compact
upper level short wave, with its small area of signif low-mid
level fgen forcing, spread a swath of 1-2 inches of wet snow
across Central PA and the Southern Poconos early this morning..
These weather features will move east off the Mid Atlantic Coast
by 14Z. Weak ridging and light wind in the lowest several KFT
AGL will allow low clouds (IFR to LIFR) and IFR-MVFR VSBYS to
linger across the southern half of the state into the late
morning hours while a sharp change to mainly VFR occurs across
the NRN Mtns.

Some gradual improvement in flying conditions will develop
further south of Interstate 80 this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR across the
Northern half of PA, but some lingering restrictions likely
across the southern PA airfields (KJST/KAOO/KMDT and KLNS) due
to lower clouds.

Friday through early Saturday...Rain and associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner