


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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320 FXUS61 KCTP 160137 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 937 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Seasonably cool & dry with near/below average temps Wed-Fri * Modest warming trend/above average temperatures this weekend * Weekend starts dry and ends wet; breezy conditions and periods of rain Sunday into Monday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Gradient wind still going at this hour, and may not drop off entirely overnight, esp on the hill tops. Might be tough to get frost due to the wind/mixing. A small patch of mid clouds over the central counties will continue drifting S, and shouldn`t matter much. Anyway, the sheltered valleys probably will, and we`ve already got it in the forecast. Temps don`t look far off- track. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sunny and seasonably cool/breezy on Thursday. Daytime dryness will peak on Thursday with room for downside to minRH in the 25-35% range. P-gradient between exiting storm in the North Atlantic and high pressure migrating to the southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will result in 20-30 mph wind gusts focused over the eastern portion of the forecast area. The low humidity and breezy conditions could support a more active fire wx day with an elevated risk of wildfire spread (SPS considerations pending fine dead fuel moisture assessment and coordination with PA BOF/DCNR partners). Minimum temperatures will reach a short term nadir Thursday night with frost/freeze conditions probable across the majority of CPA early Friday morning. Fcst low temps range from 25F in the usually colder spots in the NW Alleghenies to around 40F in the Harrisburg metro. Frost advy is likely going to be needed for some (if not all) of the 7 zones in the LSV where the growing season remains active; will continue to highlight this in the HWO. Again, no frost/freeze headlines for zones where the growing season has ended. Sfc ridge axis migrates slowly eastward Friday reaching eastern PA by 12Z Saturday. This should allow for one more chilly night particularly in the eastern valleys. Clouds are likely on the increase over western PA by the end of the period as WAA pattern and LLJ ramps up into the Upper Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Trending milder through the weekend with max temps 60-70F behind an increasing southerly return flow on the backside of departing sfc high pressure. Latest model data continues to favor mainly dry wx through Saturday. Within a highly amplified 500mb flow pattern, a strong upper trough and well defined frontal system should tap Gulf moisture moving east of the Mississippi River by late in the weekend. This system will most likely bring rain to CPA Sunday through Sunday night/Monday. Onset timing of rain is fairly uniform amongst the guidance which correlates well to NBM, but the precip duration and intensity become less certain with time given the growing model spread into early next week. Interestingly, the 15/01Z NBM clusters well with the 15/00Z EC and 15/06Z WPC QPF generally agrees as well. The last 2 runs of the EC remained very deep/closed and much slower which is a stark contrast from the more progressive GFS and CMC solutions. While the details get ironed out at shorter forecast lengths, the Sunday-early next week timeframe will feature the highest odds of widespread rainfall in the next 10 days. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Skies are slowly clearing this afternoon and any lingering MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR by 20Z. Winds have not been as gusty as expected, so we have lowered the gusts slightly for this afternoon in the 18Z TAF package. Still, a few 15 to 20 knot gusts will be possible into the early evening. VFR conditions will prevail overnight under mainly clear skies with light winds. A 30 knot low-level jet will move into eastern PA towards sunrise, but with the strongest winds likely staying above 2000 feet, the potential for LLWS at IPT, MDT, and LNS appears too low to mention in the TAFs. Skies will remain clear for Thursday, but winds will be stronger than today. Sustained northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. Outlook... Thu...VFR, still breezy. Fri-Sat... VFR Sun...Restrictions possible in SHRA. Low probability of a thunderstorm over northwest PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Gartner NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Bauco