394
FXUS61 KCTP 180735
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Blustery conditions areawide and snow flurries in the northern
  tier this evening will give way to tranquil conditions later
  tonight
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday into Tuesday night followed
  by a slightly milder trend through late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated snow flurries will continue to taper off this evening,
as the inversion height lowers. With high pressure building in,
winds will continue to decrease, becoming less than 5 kts on
average by daybreak. Upper level cirrus will begin to increase
prior to sunrise ahead of the next weather system moving across
the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving mid and upper level trough will move from the
Midwest through the Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The surface low will be weakening quite a bit as the system
moves east. Nonetheless, some light precip is expected in a warm
advection regime ahead of the surface low. Most of the guidance
show the heaviest QPF mainly south of the PA border. Timing is
such that most of the precipitation should be in the form of
rain. When the surface is cold enough for freezing rain, the
lower portion of the atmosphere looks too dry for much precip,
and then when the low levels do moisten up the ground will have
warmed. Any freezing rain early Tue would be confined to the
coldest spots in the Laurels, but chances are too low to warrant
an advisory. Rainfall amounts are progged to range from
0.25-0.50 inch across the southern tier, to just a few
hundredths of an inch of rain north of Interstate 80.

High pressure becomes the dominant feature again for Wed. Most
if not all of Wed and Thu look dry at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active northern stream jet stream will push the next frontal
system toward the area on Friday. Friday should be on the mild
side, with highs in the 50s to near 60. Rain is likely with the
passage of a cold front later Friday or early Saturday. While
the front could clear things out for the later part of the
weekend, there is a risk of the front slowing down and stalling.
If enough cold air was to get advected southward at low levels,
then one could see mixed precip late Sat/Sun, but for now
keeping PoPs less than 40 pct. PoPs remain on the low side on
Monday as high pressure dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stripe of fairly high-based (VFR) and shallow lake effect
strato clouds (with a multi-glake upstream connection) covered
the NE half of the CWA early this morning. The cloud area was
drifting slowly to the east as a narrow north/south ridge of sfc
high pressure and deep dry air aloft was moving east across the
PA/OHIO border. This will bring continued widespread VFR with a
6-8 hour period of mainly clear skies into the mid-late morning
hours today, followed by a quickly increasing mid level cloud
deck late this morning through the mid afternoon hours (from
west to east across the state).

The timing of the clearing and increasing clouds will maximize
radiational cooling of the near surface layer, allowing for the
onset of precip to be a cold. light rain or mixed precip
(rain/wet snow) as the level of the wet bulb 0C dips to just
several hundred feet AGL, as is topped by a few to several KFT
layer of wet bulb temps between zero and 1C.

Conditions will gradually dip to MVFR during the mid to late
afternoon across the Western Mtns and during the early to mid
evening from the Susq Valley...east.

MVFR to IFR CIGS and vsbys will follow for later tonight and
persist through much of Wed as shallow/moist cool air remains
with very light wind in the lowest 3-4 kft AGL - leading to
widespread, shallow and non-precipitating stratus.

Outlook...

Wed...AM showers southeast airfields, restrictions likely from
southeast flow/low clouds.

Thu...Dry, restrictions likely in persistent low clouds.

Fri-Sat...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Colbert
SHORT TERM...Martin/Colbert
LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert