


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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901 FXUS61 KCTP 150522 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 122 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Dry conditions through Thursday, with temperatures tipping slightly below climatological averages. * Above average temperatures begin Friday and continue into the weekend, with increasing rain chances this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Some fog is forming in the valleys in the N due to the light wind and clear sky. Have added fog into many of the usual valleys in the CWA. But, it shouldn`t get widespread since there should be an increase in clouds and decrease in dewpoints. There could also be perhaps a bit more wind as the cold front moves through. Otherwise, those clouds in the far E are going away, just a little slower than earlier expectations. Prev... Skies have cleared save for some patches of low clouds in the far NW and the very back edge of clouds from earlier today in the far E. The cold front is extremely dry, and tough to find. The drier air as judged by mid-40 dewpoints are in Canada, but even a couple of spots in the CWA are dipping into the 40s, now. No moisture pooling and barely clouds over wrn NY and LE lend high confidence to a dry forecast as the front passes through tonight. Prev... Clearing skies are expected overnight, with radiational cooling across the western half of the forecast area with high confidence, allowing for low temperatures into Wednesday morning dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Slightly more uncertainty with regards to the cold frontal passage timing across southeastern Pennsylvania, thus cooling might not be as efficient with low temperatures into the lower 50s. These low temperatures will generally be above-average for the middle of October across all of central Pennsylvania. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Relatively cool temperatures are progged through the middle part of the week behind the cold front, with dry air allowing for no precipitation mentions through Thursday. Cool overnight periods will bring about frost/freeze concerns, mainly Thursday night into Friday, across the Lower Susquehanna Valley where seven zones remain in the growing season (see latest PNSCTP for update on growing season). Confidence on frost/freeze concerns across the Lower Susquehanna Valley warrants continued mentions in the HWO and will need to be monitored over the next few forecast cycles for headline decisions. Daytime dryness will peak on Thursday with room for downside to minRH in the 25-35% range. 20-25 mph wind gusts particularly over the eastern portion of the area could create some concern for fire weather partners depending on how quickly dead fine fuels can cure post the cool/wet/dank Columbus Day and weekend rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change in the long-term forecast cycle for the Tuesday afternoon update. Departing high pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions through Saturday; however, a slight increase in moisture has been progged by some model guidance Saturday morning, allowing for slight chances of precipitation to be introduced in this timeframe. Better chances for precipitation comes on Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Previous Discussion, Issued 3:51 AM EDT 10/14/2025: Mild trend ramps through the weekend with max temps 65-75F behind an increasing southerly return flow on the backside of departing sfc high pressure. Latest model data continues to favor dry/rain-free wx through Saturday. Strong upper trough and well defined frontal system should tap Gulf moisture moving east of the Mississippi River. This system will most likely bring rain/showers to CPA Sunday through Sunday night/early Monday. Timing could easily shift +/- 12hr with GFS and EC showing their typical fast/slow bias at this range, but overall the models are in pretty good agreement showing the frontal rainfall on Sunday transitioning to a cooler, breezy post-frontal NW flow to begin next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Most of the area now clear. Some lower CIGS still at BFD. Winds kicking up at times across the higher elevation sites of BFD, JST, and AOO. However, winds likely to weaken again as temperatures cool more. Expect skies to clear at BFD at mid morning, as a cold front drops southward today, and drier air works into the area. Also the pressure gradient increases, so winds will become gusty at times later today. Not looking at much cloud cover offf the lakes later today and overnight tonight, given the low level flow is from the northeast, and the colder air is not very deep. Expect winds to become gusty again on Thursday, given the gradient. Outlook... Thu...VFR, still breezy. Fri-Sat... VFR Sun...Restrictions possible in SHRA. Low probability of a thunderstorm over northwest PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NPB NEAR TERM...Dangelo/NPB SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/NPB LONG TERM...Steinbugl/NPB AVIATION...Martin