453
FXUS61 KCTP 012344
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
644 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* The first widespread plowable snowfall of the season will
  cause travel impacts and disruptions early Tuesday
* Arctic cold front will deliver snow showers/squalls and bitter
  cold temperatures Thursday through Friday morning
* Reinforcing cold blast will ensure the first part of December
  will be colder than the historical average with the potential
  for another storm system this weekend or early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Quiet evening into the first part of tonight with increasing
clouds. Late afternoon temps in the 25-40F range will likely
bottom early tonight before trending neutral/leveling off prior
to the onset of snow. Initial wetbulbing may also act to
stabilize or reverse the diurnal trend through the predawn
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quick moving storm to bring the first widespread plowable
snowfall of the season to central PA early Tuesday. The snow
accumulation will result in travel impacts and disruptions for
the Tuesday morning commute to work and school.

Key Takeaways/Messages:

*Snow onset 3-6AM window from west to east (give or take 1hr)
 with temps cold enough to support accumulation and
 deteriorating road conditions
*Heaviest snow 5-10AM west to 7AM-12PM east with rates generally
 <1 in/hr (0.50-0.75" range)
*Snow end time 10AM-2PM west to east; snow showers or flurries
 linger through the evening downwind of Lake Erie over the
 western Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands
*Total snowfall in the 2-4/3-5" range for most of the area;
 exceptions are the far southeast (lower amounts 0.5-2") due to
 rain/wintry mix and the Coal region into the Poconos (higher
 amounts 4-6")
*Sullivan County has the highest probability (50-70%) of
 localized snowfall >6"
*Snow character will initially be on the dry side with temps in
 the 20s but trend wetter/slushy as temps rise near/above
 freezing by the early afternoon
*No significant wind impacts expected with this system; winds
 will increase early Tuesday night with gusts up to 20 mph

We are most confident in a widespread moderate to high end
winter wx advisory scenario given the fast moving nature of the
system. We anticipate the highest snowfall totals over the
northeast to east-central quadrant of the CWA or to the east of
US-15 and north of I-81/I-78.

Any melted snow or slush will refreeze Tuesday night with low
temps in the lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in Wednesday with a reinforcing cold front
moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. This will likely
produce some light snow across the northern tier. This front
will be a true Arctic front with a pretty good push of cold air
behind it. As such, there will probably be line of snow
showers/squall along the leading edge of the front. Current
guidance indicates the front could be along the I-99/US-15
corridor by midday, and continue to push east. We`ll be able to
nail down the timing of the event quite well given the linear
mode (contrasted with a cellular mode that is much more
complicated to time out).

Thursday night and Friday look quite cold, with lows in the
single digits and teens while highs only make it into the 20s to
low 30s. Otherwise, temperatures will be fairly consistent for
the upcoming week and weekend, with highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens and 20s.

By next weekend, another storm system looks to affect the
Midwest and northeast US. Considerable uncertainty remains with
the low track of this system. A track northwest of PA would
lead to snow changing to a wintry mix and rain, while a track
southeast of PA could look pretty similar to Tuesday`s system
with primarily snow. Regardless, a prolonged stretch of colder
than normal temperatures and an active storm track looks to
continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ceilings and visibility will continue across the area
through midnight before -SN BR moves across the region from
southwest to northeast. The storm system bringing the snow will
be a relatively quick-mover and affect the area for about 12
hours from snow start to its end.

All locations should see a period of IFR to low IFR in SN FG
during the morning hours before tapering to VCSH during the
afternoon. Confidence in -RA mixing in with the -SN would be
highest (~80%) at KLNS. The melting line should stay south of
KMDT but have a confidence of about 40% that some -RA could
briefly mix in there before the precipitation ends.

As the storm system moves east of the area Tuesday afternoon,
expect a northwest wind to increase to 10-15KTS. This may cause
some nominal restrictions in visibility in BLSN but confidence
is too low to warrant wording that far out in the forecast.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA. Gusty
winds return Thu aftn.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-034-037.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
PAZ012-018-019-025>028-035-036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen/Tyburski