358
FXUS61 KCTP 230430
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1130 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Patchy fog tonight will give way to increasing clouds and a
  few snow showers in the northern tier before sunrise
* Breezy Sunday with a couple rain/snow showers in northern PA
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday-Wednesday;
  turning decidedly brisk and colder with gusty winds and lake
  effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With high pressure overhead, skies have started off tonight
mostly clear and winds have been calm. This allowed temperatures
to fall quickly through the evening, dropping into the upper 20s
and 30s before midnight. Satellite imagery has shown only
transient stratus and very patchy fog thus far. Given the cold
temps, some freezing fog is possible overnight.

A broken line of snow showers is likely to move into the
northwest mountains between 1AM and 4 AM. QPF will likely be
just a few hundredths, with a dusting possible in spots.
Otherwise, a dry night for central PA.

500mb trough pivots eastward across the lower Great Lakes into
the Northeast states on Sunday with a trailing frontal system
sweeping across Pennsylvania. Expect breezy conditions by
Sunday afternoon with a tightening sfc p-gradient, steepening
llvl lapse rates/CAA, and BL mixing heights supporting peak
wind gusts in the 25-35+ mph range. A couple of passing rain or
snow showers are also possible particularly near and to the
north of Interstate 80. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
common over the Alleghenies with brighter spots in the lower
Susquehanna Valley thanks to downsloping. The brisk wind will
make it feel like daytime max temps are in the 30-45F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for Sunday night, ending rain/snow
showers in the north and relaxing the gusty wind. Good travel
conditions are expected to start Thanksgiving week with fair and
tranquil weather on Monday. Clouds begin to increase Monday
night as a milder warm advection pattern quickly shifts
downstream from Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November.

Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Depending on how fast precip can advance into the
retreating cold sector early Tuesday, there is a narrow window
for some mixed precip on the front-end, but not wintry impacts
expected as of now.

Well-defined cold front will plow through the Appalachians later
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow is
expected to deliver much colder temperatures by Thanksgiving.
This pattern shift and below normal temperatures will trigger
lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline into SW
NY before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts late in the week.
Several inches of snow accumulation and significant travel
disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly clear skies with a few high clouds streaming in from the
west will characterize the beginning of this evening. Expect
patchy fog to form overnight as winds go calm and skies clear
out, though confidence on restrictions is low. Model soundings
indicate that the best potential for any vsby restrictions will
be at MDT and LNS.

High and mid clouds increase overnight ahead of a low pressure
system tracking well to our north. A warm front associated with
this system may bring a few snow showers to BFD prior to
sunrise, but the better chance for precip appears to be along
and behind the cold front which will move through during the
late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be gusty on Sunday
afternoon, particularly west of UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots
appear likely, with a few gusts as high as 35 knots possible at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen