575
FXUS61 KCTP 300954
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
454 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A quick-hitting system will bring light to moderate snow
  (north), a wintry mix (south), and breezy conditions.
  Freezing drizzle is possible in the Laurels.
* A brief period of lake effect snow may affect the far NW
  Sunday night.
* A more widespread/significant winter storm is expected on
  Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery this morning looks much more ominous than
conditions at the surface indicate, in large part due to very
large dewpoint depressions and remarkably dry air at the
surface. A line of warm advection rain/snow showers is
approximately parallel to I-99 and will continue to drift slowly
northeast over the next few hours. Only light snow accumulation
is expected across the Laurels and northern mountains. The
primary concern is freezing drizzle occurring on the higher
elevations of the Laurels. Model soundings indicate a thick
cloud layer of super- cooled liquid water there before sunrise.
Temps will be below freezing there despite the thickening
clouds. Without (many) snow crystals in the cloud, the more-
likely precip type is freezing drizzle. The forcing and upslope
flow are poor and non-existent, respectively. It is even more of
a downslope flow, esp for Cambria and Bedford. A WW.Y remains in
effect until 12PM today for light ice accum at the highest
elevations.

A cold front will sweep through the CWA from W to E during mid-
day, bringing a renewed and perhaps notably uptick in intensity
of snow/rain showers. The better lift and instability will be
over the NW, and they could get above freezing just before the
front arrives. Almost all other locations will likely get to or
above freezing, too. The soundings look like snow N of a line
from JST-UNV-IPT before the front passes despite the above
freezing air temps. Therefore, there could be some heavier snow
showers or squalls that could ice up the previously warmed
roads/bridges. The highest risk for SQWs would be over the
Alleghenies where the SNSQ parameter start to light up as we see
some instability develop in the "warm" sector. The vertical
profiles look more like mix or rain as you move farther south
toward I-81, especially the later in the day things
arrive/occur. Maxes will be in the 40s S of I-80 and below
1500ft.

For now, only mentions of SNSQ will be in the NW third. FROPA
18Z BFD, 22Z IPT/AOO, 00Z at LNS. Wind will get gusty in the
unstable/mixed air, but should be under 30KTs. Some hilltops in
the west could get into the 30s. The flow behind the front goes
NWrly and still has some kick. Lake effect snow will resume
Sunday afternoon and continue overnight coincident with a
secondary cold front pushing thru the NW. An additional inch or
two of snow is possible in far northwest PA with light
accumulations possible down to I-80. Moisture decreases and
inversion lowers by sunrise Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday should be bland/fair with high pressure arriving and
centering overhead. Clouds will probably linger in the W very
much like today (Sat) before high clouds move in later in the
day on Monday. A few high resolution models keep a lake effect
snow band going into late morning west of I-99, but building
high pressure should limit any impacts.

Another storm will approach the region on Tuesday as cold air
in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic zone
over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should keep
cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation
shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the
Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the
aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing
moisture to the Mid- Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.

The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with
the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance
of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a
deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing
juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce
significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive
later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on
Tuesday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have
big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward
extent of any mix/rain scenarios.

The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid
equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%)
across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected
in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a
30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast
PA, primarily east of US-15. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of
6"+ have trended up a bit also supporting the 30-50% probability
in the Poconos, with an even higher likelihood up through
coastal New England. If the current track/timing holds, watches
may be needed in the next forecast cycle. At this time, though,
a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the
region. Guidance has remained consistent overall for snowfall
amounts with the last two runs, however some uncertainty remains
whether or not warm nosing above the surface could limit snow
across the PA/MD border. If mixing is a problem for anywhere in
Central PA, it would be for locations southeast of US-30 in York
and Lancaster County. Continue to monitor the forecast in the
days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation moves east of the area by Tuesday evening, with
perhaps a bit of lake effect or upslope snow into Wednesday
morning. High pressure builds Wednesday with a reinforcing cold
front moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. This could
produce some light snow across mainly the northern tier.

Thursday night and Friday look quite chilly, with lows in the
single digits and teens while highs only make it into the 20s to
low 30s. Otherwise, temperatures will be fairly consistent for
the upcoming week and weekend, with highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens and 20s.

By next weekend, another storm system looks to affect the
Midwest and northeast US. Considerable uncertainty remains with
the low track of this system. A track northwest of PA would
lead to snow changing to a wintry mix and rain, while a track
southeast of PA could look pretty similar to Tuesday`s system
with primarily snow. Regardless, a prolonged stretch of cooler
than normal temperatures and an active storm track through the
northeast looks to continue into the first week (and more) of
December.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some radar returns across north/western Pennsylvania are likely
struggling to reach the ground in the near-term with low- level
dry air in place. Better chances for precipitation come after
06Z Sunday based on a consensus of GLAMP/HREF guidance, thus
have trended back any mentions of precipitation at BFD until
after 06Z Sunday. Snowfall will begin with restrictions to
MVFR/high-end IFR at BFD as there remains some uncertainty with
respect to how east the heaviest band of snowfall will extend
between 06-08Z Sunday. There remains a lower probability
solution where the heavier band sneaks into BFD closer to 07Z
and brings (V)LIFR restrictions; however, confidence remains too
low (~20-30%) to include in the 00Z TAF package and might be
better resolved in the 06Z TAF package with current radar trends
available at that time.

Precipitation is expected (based on GLAMP/RAP/HREF guidance) to
enter JST/AOO closer to the 11-12Z timeframe and gradually
extend eastward with prevailing MVFR restrictions limited to
JST/AOO/UNV at this time. There remains a lower confidence
solution where lower ceilings develop at IPT (~30% probability)
so have outlined a PROB30 group for this outcome. IFR
restrictions after 12Z will look confined to western terminals
(BFD/JST) for the 00Z TAF package.

Moderate-to-high (~60-70%) confidence in LLWS exists at all
airfields outside of UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS after 11Z with the cold
frontal passage and increased low-level flow behind the frontal
passage across central Pennsylvania. Recent TAF package
continues mentions for these restrictions, with slight timing
adjustments based on RAP/GLAMP model guidance.

Outlook...

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ033.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...NPB