803
FXUS61 KCTP 110954
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
454 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Windy and colder through today with numerous, narrow bands of
 snow showers and brief heavy squalls (mainly across Central and
 Northern PA) with significant lake effect snow across the
 perennial snowbelt of Warren and McKean Counties.
*Additional bouts of winter weather possible Friday through Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep and fairly well-aligned Northwesterly flow combined with
high RHs up through 6-8 kft AGL and a 3kft thick layer of
favorable dendritic growth between about 2 and 5 kft AGL will
bring widespread snow showers with narrow bands of brief heavy
squalls. The relatively strong shear in the cloud-bearing/DGZ
layer will help to transport the snow showers across the Mid and
Lower Susq Valley, where practically anyone across the Central
Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Valley could see a quick
coating to one inch of snow (outside of the Wint Weather
Advisory areas. recently issued the first snow squall warning of
the day so far (just to the NE of a KFIG to KUNV line).

The SNSQ parameter signal maximizes risk for narrow LES/Squall
bands across the region near and to the north of I-80 right into
tonight.

Additional, long-duration snow accumulations through tonight
across the northwest snowbelts generally ranges from 3-6" with
locally higher amounts up to 8" or so possible in the most
persistent bands.

Vertical mixing and wind speeds residing in the upper half of
the boundary layer have backed off by about 5-8 kts from the
Wed 00Z/06Z guidance values that pointed toward possible wind
advisory criteria being met. Since few forecast soundings mix
through the level where 40+KT winds reside, peak gusts should be
mainly in the upper 30s and low 40s (mph).

High temps today will be 7-13 deg F lower than Wednesday and
the wind will add a significant bite to this cold air outbreak
with wind chills only recovering to the upper single digits
across the northern and western mountains and teens to low 20s
elsewhere.

Icy spots are likely on roads today, where wet surfaces and
slush from Wednesday`s rain/mixed precip and wet snow has
refrozen in the wake of the cfropa late Wed evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LES should fade out by Friday afternoon; next clipper slides to
the south but could clip the SW mtns with some light snow
by Friday night.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The better chance for lake effect and orographically generated
snow showers comes Saturday into early Sunday.

Models suggest some light snow may be possible on Saturday with
a better signal focusing on Sunday as another/more potent
clipper disturbances translates around an upper trough over the
Great Lakes.

Very cold and windy behind the late weekend system with lake
effect and upslope snow into early next week. There may be some
signs of a brief? thaw heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered snow showers will continue through the night,
gradually becoming more confined to northwest PA through sunrise.
Outside of BFD and JST, expect ceilings to rise to VFR by
12-14Z. Snowfall rates downwind of Lake Erie will increase after
14Z as the lake effect bands intensify in response to a
shortwave trough moving across the lake. This should bring
moderate snowfall into BFD, dropping visibility to IFR. There is
still considerable variation in the models regarding the timing
and placement of the heaviest bands, any bands moving directly
over the airfield would likely result in visibility dropping
below 1/2SM.

Gusty winds are expected through the rest of the night and
during the day on Thursday, with northwest winds sustained
between 15 and 25 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 knots (strongest
at JST and AOO). Lake effect snow showers continue at BFD
through the evening and into the overnight hours. Ceilings
briefly rise to VFR at JST during the evening, but will lower
to MVFR once again after 00Z.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon...Additional rounds of light snow possible with
multiple clipper systems.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
December 21st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ006-010-
011-017.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl