227
FXUS61 KCTP 111131
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
631 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Windy and colder through today with numerous, narrow bands of
 snow showers and brief heavy squalls (mainly across Central and
 Northern PA) with significant lake effect snow across the
 perennial snowbelt of Warren and McKean Counties.
*Additional bouts of winter weather possible Friday through Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep and fairly well-aligned Northwesterly flow combined with
high RHs up through 6-8 kft AGL and a 3kft thick layer of
favorable dendritic growth between about 2 and 5 kft AGL will
bring widespread snow showers with narrow bands of brief heavy
squalls. The relatively strong shear in the cloud-bearing/DGZ
layer will help to transport the snow showers across the Mid and
Lower Susq Valley, where practically anyone across the Central
Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Valley could see a quick
coating to one inch of snow (outside of the Wint Weather
Advisory areas. recently issued the first snow squall warning of
the day so far (just to the NE of a KFIG to KUNV line).

The SNSQ parameter signal maximizes risk for narrow LES/Squall
bands across the region near and to the north of I-80 right into
tonight.

Additional, long-duration snow accumulations through tonight
across the northwest snowbelts generally ranges from 3-6" with
locally higher amounts up to 8" or so possible in the most
persistent bands.

Vertical mixing and wind speeds residing in the upper half of
the boundary layer have backed off by about 5-8 kts from the
Wed 00Z/06Z guidance values that pointed toward possible wind
advisory criteria being met. Since few forecast soundings mix
through the level where 40+KT winds reside, peak gusts should be
mainly in the upper 30s and low 40s (mph).

High temps today will be 7-13 deg F lower than Wednesday and
the wind will add a significant bite to this cold air outbreak
with wind chills only recovering to the upper single digits
across the northern and western mountains and teens to low 20s
elsewhere.

Icy spots are likely on roads today, where wet surfaces and
slush from Wednesday`s rain/mixed precip and wet snow has
refrozen in the wake of the cfropa late Wed evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LES should fade out by Friday afternoon; next clipper slides to
the south but could clip the SW mtns with some light snow
by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The better chance for lake effect and orographically generated
snow showers comes Saturday into early Sunday.

Models suggest some light snow may be possible on Saturday with
a better signal focusing on Sunday as another/more potent
clipper disturbances translates around an upper trough over the
Great Lakes.

Very cold and windy behind the late weekend system with lake
effect and upslope snow into early next week. There may be some
signs of a brief? thaw heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect/upslope snow will continue through the day, bringing
periods of snow to all TAF sites except MDT and LNS. While the
snow bands are reaching all the way to UNV and AOO this morning,
low-level flow should take on more of a westerly component this
afternoon, helping to direct the snow bands largely north of
Interstate 80. That being said, a few snow showers will still
be possible at JST through the afternoon. TAF sites that see
snow move directly overhead will likely see brief periods of IFR
visibility. Ceilings will largely be VFR outside of BFD and
JST, where MVFR ceilings should persist for much of the day.

Gusty winds will continue today with northwest winds sustained
between 15 and 25 knots along with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. Lake
effect snow showers continue at BFD and potentially IPT through
the evening and into the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon...Additional rounds of light snow possible with
multiple clipper systems.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
December 21st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ006-010-
011-017.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl