220
FXUS61 KCTP 131946
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
246 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly clear to partly cloudy and not as windy tonight;
  slightly milder and dry end to the week on Friday
* Clouds increase with periods of rain Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night; a gusty thunderstorm is possible in WPA
* Windy and colder with lake/terrain enhanced snow showers
  Sunday into Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds and a few passing rain/snow showers will linger across
the northeast portion of the CWA this evening into tonight on
the southwestern periphery of a departing upper level trough.
Elsewhere, look for partly cloudy to mainly clear skies and
decreasing wind as high pressure ridge settles into southwest
PA by 12Z Friday. Fcst minimum temps are pretty close to
seasonal climo in the 25-35F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A bit milder, dry and not as windy end to the week on Friday.
Max/min temps remain close to the historical average for mid
November in the 40-55F/25-35F range. Model guidance appears to
be signaling more cloud cover/less sunshine during the day.

Warm advection pattern picks up Friday night through Saturday
downstream of amplifying large-scale upper trough tracking
southeast from the Canadian Prairies across the Great Lakes
towards the Northeast through Saturday night. Deepening sfc low
moving from the U.P. of MI up the St. Lawrence River Valley
will drag a trailing warm/cold frontal system through CPA
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night accompanied by periods
of rain. A favorable zone for a few t-storms (warm sector) capable
of locally strong/severe wind gusts may exist from the Upper
Ohio Valley into the western slopes of the Allegheny Mtns late
Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening -- before
convection (largely elevated) weakens while crossing the higher
terrain through central and eastern PA Saturday night. SPC
trimmed back the MRGL SWO primarily to the west of the PBZ/CTP
border, but will allow the night shift to adjust HWO with
tomorrow`s Day 2 SWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday into Monday period looks quite windy and colder with
brisk and blustery NW flow. Max gusts via NBM are currently in
the 30-40 mph range and could see a wind advisory being needed
in the coming days. The typical cold season post-frontal
pattern transition will be punctuated by a ramp up of
lake/terrain enhanced snow showers with potential for snow
accumulation in the favored snowbelts, ridgetops and summits
along the Allegheny Plateau (generally locations along and to
the north/west of the I99 & US220 corridor).

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds will gradually break up through the afternoon as high
pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Wind gusts of 30
to 35 knots will continue into the evening before decreasing
overnight. There is low potential for LLWS this evening as
surface wind gusts drop off, but model soundings from the RAP
and HRRR suggest that the strongest winds will remain above
2000 feet. VFR conditions are expected overnight for all TAF
sites, though BFD has around a 15% chance of MVFR ceilings
developing. Friday will feature VFR conditions with lighter
winds than we have seen the past few days.

Outlook...

Sat...Afternoon SHRA.

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Breezy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Breezy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, transitioning to RA. Restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco