358
FXUS61 KCTP 050211
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
911 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Moderately gusty northwest wind and plummeting temperatures
  will occur late this afternoon and tonight with near record
  lows Friday morning
* A weak area of low pressure will likely bring a light
  snowfall to much of Central and Northern PA late Sunday into
  Sunday night
* Reinforcing cold pattern locks in below average temperatures
  through the second week of December

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Arctic front pushing across the SE half of the CWA this mid
afternoon hour. The low subsidence inversion base with the
shallow strato cu clouds encountering the lowering DGZ will mean
just some flurries into this evening across the NW Mtns INVOF
KBFD with skc-scattered cloud cover occupying the bulk of the
night tonight elsewhere.

8H temps drop to around -17C in the N by sunset. the NW wind
will gust into the 30s at times during the rest of the daylight
hours before subsiding this evening then becoming light and
variable for the middle of tonight as a ridge slides east
across the region overnight.

Low temps around sunrise Fri will be in the single digits
across the Alleghenies and Laurels. See the Climate section
below for current records for the 25th of Dec.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak wave of low pressure sliding by to our south on Friday
could bring some flakes to the southern tier of PA in the
morning but not even a dusting of snow is expected at this
point. 10-20 percent POPS have been maintained from near the PA
Turnpike south.

Temps rebound nicely on Friday. However maxes will struggle to
reach 32F, even in the warmer locations thanks to the arctic
air and a shield of sun dimming mid and high clouds streaming
overhead from the near-miss wave to our south.

WAA later Friday/Friday night and variable amounts of mid and
high clouds should keep temps 8-18F milder than Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Series of reinforcing shortwaves offer a few opportunities for
snow late in the weekend and early next week.

The northern stream nature of these events with limited
moisture and little amplification to the supporting upper level
troughs will mean just light snow accums in most places (with a
1-3 inch snowfall looking likely across the Nrn Mtns of PA
later in the day Sunday/Sunday night). Greatest accums will be
near the PA/NY border. The main theme to the medium and long
range will be cold with below normal temps expected to last
through the second week of December.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move across central PA tonight, resulting in
decreasing winds and cold conditions. A few streamers of MVFR
stratus will persist across the NW including BFD through 02-03z.
Otherwise, only high clouds or clear skies are expected for
much of the night. However after 09z, stratus will begin
creeping up northward through Pennsylvania`s Alleghenies. MVFR
cigs are expected at all TAF sites on Friday, first at JST by
11-13z, then north and east through the day and finally up to
BFD and IPT by 17-21z Fri. There is a slight chance of snow
flurries across mainly the southern tier.

Outlook...
Sat...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the NW

Sun...A compact but more amplified upper level trough with a preceding
low level south to southwesterly wind max will likely bring a 4
to 6 hour period of mainly light snow with IFR vsbys and MVFR to
IFR CIGS (targeting mainly Central and Northern PA) late
Sunday/Sunday night.

Mon...Mainly VFR

Tue...Snow/restrictions possible mostly in the second half of
the day


&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures in the wake of the Arctic Front will bring
frigid temperatures to central Pennsylvania, the coldest of this
winter thus far. Multiple locations across the area will be
challenging record low temperatures on December 25th:

Location|Record
Harrisburg | 12 (1926)
Williamsport |   8 (1926)
Bradford | 0 (2007)
Altoona | 13 (1966)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
CLIMATE...NPB