076
FXUS61 KCTP 301925
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
225 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A quick-hitting system will bring a mix of rain and snow
  showers today with no impacts expected.
* A brief period of lake effect snow will affect northwest PA
  tonight.
* A more widespread/significant winter storm is expected Monday
  night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front currently pushing through the Alleghenies will
continue to drive a broken band of rain and snow showers across
central PA. The better lift and instability will be over NW PA,
where some pockets of moderate snow will be possible. While air
temperatures have largely warmed above freezing, including into
the low 40s across the Laurel Highlands, this cooler air in the
wake of this front and wet-bulbing within the precipitation will
put a halt to the "warmup". Will continue to monitor the
northwest mountains, particularly along U.S. 6, for snow squall
potential this afternoon ahead of the approaching front. Will
also have to watch farther east into the Poconos where colder
air has remained entrenched in the valleys there, but large
scale forcing looks weaker that far east. Vertical thermodynamic
profiles support more of a mix or all liquid rain farther south
toward I-81 with a longer dry period and being farther ahead of
the front. Max temps will be in the 40s south of I-80 and below
1500ft.

Gusty west winds will mix down behind the front, but speeds
should max out in the 30-40 mph range on ridges. Lake effect
snow will resume later this afternoon and continue overnight
coincident with a secondary cold front pushing through and winds
veering northwesterly. An additional inch or two of snow is
possible in far northwest PA with light accumulations possible
down toward I-80 in Clearfield County. Transient surface ridging
bringing lowering inversion heights will bring and end to the
precipitation by Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday will be dry with high pressure arriving and centering
overhead. Clouds will probably linger in the west with upslope
flow before high clouds move in later in the day on Monday. High
pressure should limit any real potential for additional lake-
induced precipitation.

A more significant storm will approach the Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a
strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the
Plains should keep cold air in place on the northern side of
the precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to
move out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around
the base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing
increasing moisture to the Commonwealth Monday night into
Tuesday.

The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with
the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow its forward
momentum. Despite the expected quick forward movement, a
deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing
juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce
significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive
later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on
Tuesday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have
big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward
extent of any mix/rain scenarios.

The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of
Warning criteria snowfall (6"+) in northeast PA, primarily east
of US-15. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ also support the
30-50% probability in the Poconos, with an even higher
likelihood up through coastal New England. The ECENS suggests
the higher terrain farther south could also bear watching. Have
gone ahead and hoisted a Winter Storm Watch from Lycoming and
Sullivan Counties down through Northumberland and Schuylkill
Counties for Monday night into Tuesday evening. May certainly
need to expand this and want to reiterate that storm
intensity/track will weigh heavily on where future advisories
and/or warnings may be needed. Regardless, a plowable snowfall
is likely for almost all of central PA on the low end of the
spectrum. Guidance has remained consistent overall for snowfall
amounts with the last two runs, however some uncertainty remains
whether or not warm nosing above the surface could limit snow
across the PA/MD border into south central PA and the lower
Susquehanna Valley. If mixing is a problem for anywhere in
central PA, it would probably be for locations southeast of
US-30 in York and Lancaster County. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to
travel.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation moves east of the area by Tuesday evening, with
perhaps a bit of lake effect or upslope snow into Wednesday
morning. High pressure builds in Wednesday with a reinforcing
cold front moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. This
could produce some light snow across mainly the northern tier.

Thursday night and Friday look quite chilly, with lows in the
single digits and teens while highs only make it into the 20s to
low 30s. Otherwise, temperatures will be fairly consistent for
the upcoming week and weekend, with highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens and 20s.

By next weekend, another storm system looks to affect the
Midwest and northeast US. Considerable uncertainty remains with
the low track of this system. A track northwest of PA would
lead to snow changing to a wintry mix and rain, while a track
southeast of PA could look pretty similar to Tuesday`s system
with primarily snow. Regardless, a prolonged stretch of cooler
than normal temperatures and an active storm track through the
northeast looks to continue into the first week (and more) of
December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current conditions show a mixture of high and low clouds taking
up the airspace overhead. Light stratiform precipitation is
present over central PA with minimal impacts to flight
conditions present. The cold front is currently positioned over
western PA, and it will progress eastward over the next few
hours. There remains LLWS concerns for a time after the frontal
passage, but winds will generally calm down after sundown
tonight.

Cloud decks are a mixture of MVFR to VFR. Confidence is high in
MVFR clouds hanging on in the western terminals of AOO, JST, and
BFD, with some low probabilities of IFR at the higher terrain.
Elsewhere, especially in the southeast at MDT and LNS,
conditions should generally become VFR during the overnight
tonight and early morning hours Monday.

Once precipitation clears later this afternoon, conditions
should remain dry for tonight and Monday. The only site that
could see some snow would be BFD as lake effect winds will bring
snow banding potential into the northwest. The next widespread
snowfall system will arrive on Tuesday as a coastal low
develops and move up the coast of New England Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely NW. IFR
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for PAZ041-042-046-051>053-058.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bowen