


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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602 FXUS65 KCYS 162355 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 555 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm system will move through the area today, first bringing showers and thunderstorms, followed by mountain snow and strong winds across the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming. - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Elk Mountain and Arlington area along Interstate 80 for late this evening through most of Friday. - A series of clipper systems will impact the region on Saturday and on Monday with another round of strong winds and some rain and snow mix possible down to 6000 feet. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An upper level low is ejecting out of the Intermountain West and into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow. A cold front is progged to move through this afternoon creating some afternoon to evening showers today. Once the trailing cold front pushes eastward, the 700mb gradient is expected to compress to produce a 50+ knot jet into the overnight period. Models continue to show increasing low level subsidence along the Laramie Range and the Snowy Range tonight. In-house wind guidance has slowly been increasing the probabilities for meeting or exceeding high wind criteria over the past couple model runs for both the Arlington wind prone area as well as the Bordeaux wind prone area. The High wind watch was upgraded to high wind warning due to the increasing probabilities and stronger subsident flow over the past model runs. There is another probable high wind event for Friday night as the 700mb jet seems to remain overhead but was going to wait for the next model runs to see if the trends continue and the subsident flow is strong enough to mix down those high winds again for Friday night. Another shortwave is expected to hit friday evening into the overnight period. However, most of our moisture will in northern portion of our forecast area so its possible that only our Northern counties receive any sort of measurable precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Periods of active weather expected in the long term as we see clipper systems bringing precipitation and winds to the region during the weekend and again early next week, with the potential for a brief quieter period into the middle to later portion of next week to end the long term. Saturday begins as the first aforementioned clipper moves into the region, bringing early precipitation followed by gusty winds and cold morning lows into Sunday. Currently, ensembles are indicating we should be a bit too warm to produce lower elevation snow with this quick hit of moisture in the morning, so for now expect morning rain and high elevation snow for our western zones, though with QPF amounts lacking, significant accumulations are unlikely. Pressure gradients tighten and we`ll see an enhanced jet at the mid and high levels, leading to high confidence in another high wind event for our wind prone regions. In house guidance is in good agreement on this, showing similar high confidence on the potential for gusts 58+ mph. Sunday morning lows should be chilly behind the cold air mass this system brings, with widespread lows around or just above freezing, but clear skies from a transient ridge will let us warm with highs back into the 60`s to mid 70`s. Monday another quick moving clipper system brings more precipitation and notably cooler temperatures which could lead to a higher chance of mid to lower elevation snow, though confidence at this time still remains low. And forecasts indicate amounts once again won`t be high with the quick moving nature of this system, so overall accumulations shouldn`t be significant. But another stout jet accompanies this system, once again promoting a moderate to high chance of high winds for our region with agreement coming together yet again from our in house guidance. The cold air that follows this system is expected to promote a widespread morning freeze on Tuesday morning, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20`s across most of our Wyoming zones, with low 30`s in the Nebraska Panhandle. After that, the forecast becomes quiet to end the long term period, with another transient ridge on Tuesday followed by a weaker trough on Wednesday that isn`t currently producing noteworthy impacts based on NBM guidance. Overall there is moderate to high confidence in the overall forecast as ensemble clusters remain in good agreement on the features and their general strength and placement through the long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 554 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Breezy conditions are expected overnight at southeast Wyoming terminals. Gusts over 30 kts will be possible and will continue into the day Friday. Lighter winds are expected across western Nebraska terminals overnight with mostly clear skies. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ106-107-116-117. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...SF