602
FXUS65 KCYS 162355
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will move through the area today, first
  bringing showers and thunderstorms, followed by mountain snow
  and strong winds across the wind prone areas of southeast
  Wyoming.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Elk Mountain and
  Arlington area along Interstate 80 for late this evening
  through most of Friday.

- A series of clipper systems will impact the region on Saturday
  and on Monday with another round of strong winds and some rain
  and snow mix possible down to 6000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An upper level low is ejecting out of the Intermountain West and
into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow. A cold front is
progged to move through this afternoon creating some afternoon to
evening showers today. Once the trailing cold front pushes eastward,
the 700mb gradient is expected to compress to produce a 50+ knot jet
into the overnight period. Models continue to show increasing low
level subsidence along the Laramie Range and the Snowy Range
tonight. In-house wind guidance has slowly been increasing the
probabilities for meeting or exceeding high wind criteria over the
past couple model runs for both the Arlington wind prone area as
well as the Bordeaux wind prone area. The High wind watch was
upgraded to high wind warning due to the increasing probabilities and
stronger subsident flow over the past model runs. There is another
probable high wind event for Friday night as the 700mb jet seems to
remain overhead but was going to wait for the next model runs to see
if the trends continue and the subsident flow is strong enough to
mix down those high winds again for Friday night. Another shortwave
is expected to hit friday evening into the overnight period.
However, most of our moisture will in northern portion of our
forecast area so its possible that only our Northern counties
receive any sort of measurable precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Periods of active weather expected in the long term as we see
clipper systems bringing precipitation and winds to the region
during the weekend and again early next week, with the potential
for a brief quieter period into the middle to later portion of
next week to end the long term. Saturday begins as the first
aforementioned clipper moves into the region, bringing early
precipitation followed by gusty winds and cold morning lows into
Sunday. Currently, ensembles are indicating we should be a bit
too warm to produce lower elevation snow with this quick hit of
moisture in the morning, so for now expect morning rain and high
elevation snow for our western zones, though with QPF amounts
lacking, significant accumulations are unlikely. Pressure
gradients tighten and we`ll see an enhanced jet at the mid and
high levels, leading to high confidence in another high wind
event for our wind prone regions. In house guidance is in good
agreement on this, showing similar high confidence on the
potential for gusts 58+ mph. Sunday morning lows should be
chilly behind the cold air mass this system brings, with
widespread lows around or just above freezing, but clear skies
from a transient ridge will let us warm with highs back into the
60`s to mid 70`s.

Monday another quick moving clipper system brings more
precipitation and notably cooler temperatures which could lead
to a higher chance of mid to lower elevation snow, though
confidence at this time still remains low. And forecasts
indicate amounts once again won`t be high with the quick moving
nature of this system, so overall accumulations shouldn`t be
significant. But another stout jet accompanies this system, once
again promoting a moderate to high chance of high winds for our
region with agreement coming together yet again from our in
house guidance. The cold air that follows this system is
expected to promote a widespread morning freeze on Tuesday
morning, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20`s across most
of our Wyoming zones, with low 30`s in the Nebraska Panhandle.
After that, the forecast becomes quiet to end the long term
period, with another transient ridge on Tuesday followed by a
weaker trough on Wednesday that isn`t currently producing
noteworthy impacts based on NBM guidance. Overall there is
moderate to high confidence in the overall forecast as ensemble
clusters remain in good agreement on the features and their
general strength and placement through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Breezy conditions are expected overnight at southeast Wyoming
terminals. Gusts over 30 kts will be possible and will continue
into the day Friday. Lighter winds are expected across western
Nebraska terminals overnight with mostly clear skies.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday for
     WYZ106-107-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF