787
FXUS65 KCYS 150504
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1004 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning remain in effect for the Arlington/Elk
  Mountain and Bordeaux wind prone regions through Saturday
  morning.

- A Red Flag Warning continues through 5 PM this evening for the
  Nebraska Panhandle.

- A trough will move into the area later this weekend with
  chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Ongoing high wind warning and red flag warnings are doing a good
job of verifying this afternoon as gusty conditions are
prevalent across the entire CWA. While winds have relaxed below
high wind criteria for the most part, a second round of stronger
conditions is expected tonight into the early morning hours on
Saturday before fully relaxing below high wind criteria,
prompting the warning to continue through 5 AM Saturday.
Meanwhile a few sites in the Nebraska Panhandle have been
regularly hitting red flag conditions or just above it, and RH
values should remain low through the next couple of hours
before rising back above critical threshold.

Moving into Saturday conditions should lessen as the ridge
flattens from a a system passing to our north before re-
amplifying through the day into Sunday in response to an
approaching low from California. While conditions will be fair
overall with temperatures still notably warmer than average,
clouds will begin to increase during the evening in response to
the approaching low that will then bring a more progressive
pattern moving into the long term and colder temperatures
returning at that time as well. Until then, enjoy
the fair start to the weekend before colder and more winter-like
conditions return to the region moving into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

The long term will be a semi-active period as we see several
systems move into the region and bring about a pattern change
that, by the end of the forecast period, should finally bring
our temperatures back down to near normal while also finally
giving us precipitation to end our dry streak. Sunday begins as
the California low lifts up towards the region, moving across
through Monday. With the ongoing warm conditions we`re
experiencing alongside plentiful moisture associated with this
system, expect widespread rain and mountain snow through the
start of the week. Much as with previous long term outlooks,
there is still some uncertainty in how much rain and snow we`ll
be able to produce outside of the high terrain due to lower
confidence in our forcing mechanism. Orographic lift appears all
but certain to give us valley showers and mountain snowfall with
QPF values in excess of 200-250% of normal, with current
estimates in the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges around 6-10
inches which would necessitate a winter weather advisory for
these ranges. At the lower elevations into the high plains the
threat of precipitation becomes a bit less certain, but showers
moving off of the mountains and into the adjacent valleys and
plains should at least bring likely showers into southeast
Wyoming and sustaining all the way into the border of Nebraska,
with the NBM producing a fairly widespread tenth of an inch or
more for most of the CWA. While temperatures will be falling
thanks to this system, we`re not expecting enough cold air to
bring areas east of the Laramie Range low enough for snowfall
and the NBM does not produce any probabilities for this region
due to this warmth, so look for this activity to remain
rainfall. Finally, we may see another uptick in winds, as the
700mb jet looks primed to bring some high speeds to our region,
with the GFS peaking as high as 70 knots. That being said, omega
values are only semi-favorable and much stronger to our south,
so we may not be able to bring quite as much of these winds down
as in other high wind events. Still, in house guidance is
already excited and showing locations such as Arlington and
Bordeaux nearing to peaking at 60+ mph, so anticipate another
round of high wind warnings to start the week.

Moving into the rest of the long term, high pressure ridging
should return to control our area through the middle of next
week, with another low then incoming to end the week and into
next week. Current guidance does keep this system well to our
south though with weaker troughing moving over our area in lieu
of the stronger low itself. Still this pattern should allow for
a fairly steady stream of moisture and produce some chances of
precipitation through the end of next week while our
temperatures steadily decline through next Thursday. By that
point, the majority of the region should be back to near normal
highs, ending our warm streak as weak move into the later part
of November where current climate outlooks suggest we could get
even colder leading into Thanksgiving. Overall there is moderate
confidence (40-50%) in the forecast as ensembles begin to
diverge in the strength of the systems moving into the later
part of the long term, brining more uncertainty to the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1004 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

KRWL and KLAR remain rather gusty as expected. High based clouds
are going to be the predominant ceiling through tonight. There
are a few clouds hanging around between 10,000 and 12,000ft. VFR
conditions are still anticipated through the TAF forecast. After
00z tomorrow winds are expected to drop off and become light
across the forecast area.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...MM