Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
732 FNUS28 KWNS 102146 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more diffuse surface high pressure evolves across the Southeast midweek allowing generally lighter winds to develop across the region, reducing the fire weather threat. A persistent southerly flow on the western periphery of the high should bring deeper Gulf moisture and higher humidity into portions of the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as a mid-level ridge builds over the central U.S. through Day 5/Friday. Farther west, a mid-level trough deepens across the northeast Pacific, ushering in marked mid and upper-level moisture into the much of the West through the end of the week. A mid-level trough/low moving into the Southwest towards the weekend could spur some fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday, before bringing some much needed precipitation to the region, with eventual rainfall potentially moving into lower Mississippi Valley early next week. ...Day 4/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Modest westerly flow aloft over the central/southern Rockies and subsequent lee trough development in the central/southern Plains will promote dry and locally breezy conditions across east-central NM and western TX Thursday. However, fire weather threat appears to localized to include critical probability delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... An approaching mid-level trough and associated stronger mid-level flow progressing into the Southwest should support a broader fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Friday. A 40% critical probability delineation remains in place for eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Uncertainty in the western extent of higher Gulf Moisture across the southern and central Plains and weaker surface pressure gradient lowers predictability for fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains for Day 6/Saturday. ...Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday... The mid-level trough/low ejects into lower Mississippi Valley early next week while a cold front sweeps through the Northeast by Day 8/Monday. The resultant trail of frontal precipitation and more widespread rainfall across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will generally reduce fire weather concerns early next week across eastern CONUS. ..Williams.. 11/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$