723
FNUS28 KWNS 172132
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Synopsis...
By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific
coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further
east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the
eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively
unchanged through the end of the week.

A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the
mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most
of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some
wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this
deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible
over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the
afternoon and evening.

Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface
winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the
opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived
across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels
persist.

Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as
far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting
precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier
sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and
Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry
thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the
Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will
likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with
overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical
probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south
winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again
RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low
critical probabilities.

Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this
weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to
upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough
moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low
critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying,
downslope westerly flow is anticipated.

..Barnes.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$