166
FNUS28 KWNS 132206
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough deepens across the eastern U.S., with a trailing
cold front contributing to some precipitation across the Northeast
through the weekend. A favorable drier, downslope scenario for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic could develop leeward of the
Appalachians on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday as post-frontal flow enters
the region. Farther west, the mid-level low impacting CA translates
northeastward, evolving into more an open wave before reaching the
Central Plains. A surface trough/low in response to a mid-level jet
moving over the Central Rockies could bring expanding fire weather
concerns back into portions of the Southern Plains on Monday. A
deeper mid/upper trough develops over the West as midweek
approaches. A better opportunity exists for rainfall across the
Southern Plains later next week as the trough interacts with more
substantial boundary layer moisture within the region.

...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday...
A cold front trailing southwestward across the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic from a strong surface low approaching Nova
Scotia, could bring breezy, post-frontal winds to leeward areas east
of the of the Appalachians on as early as Day 4/Sunday. A strong
mid-level jet from the Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic will aid in
downslope wind enhancement and drying. However, low-cloud cover and
potential light rainfall before drier post-frontal winds set up
could mitigate fire weather concerns Sunday. Farther west, dry and
breezy conditions from downslope flow leeward of the Southern
Rockies is expected east-central NM and the TX Panhandle on Day
3/Saturday, with 40% probabilities maintained for the area. A higher
confidence exists in more expansive dry/breezy conditions on the
southwest flank of a incipient deepening surface low across the
Central Plains. A 40% critical probability was added to portions of
the TX Panhandle and southwest OK on Day 5/Monday where these
conditions align with increasingly dry and cured fuels.

...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...
A deep mid/upper-level trough emerges across the West by midweek
offering a better potential for precipitation across the central and
southern Plains, which should largely mitigate fire weather concerns
later next week.

..Williams.. 11/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$