470
FNUS28 KWNS 142141
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
A mid-level trough moving northeastward into the Northern Plains and
corresponding lee cyclone/trough will support elevated southerly
surface winds across the Great Plains ahead of advancing cold front.
Recent rainfall across the central/northern Plains, marginally low
relative humidity and largely unreceptive fuels should limit fire
weather concerns for the region for Day 3/Thursday. As the cold
front shifts eastward, increased south/southwest flow should move
into the Midwest. Deeper boundary layer moisture transported north
from the Gulf of America will support limited RH reductions within
the stronger wind field across the Plains and Midwest, with showers
and thunderstorms likely developing near the frontal boundary.

...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Additional Gulf moisture ahead of the advancing cold front and a
trough digging into the eastern U.S. will support more widespread
rainfall across the region, particularly across the Ohio River
Valley and Southeast. Forecast guidance still shows an active
upper-level wave pattern continuing across CONUS through the
weekend. Uncertainty exists in timing of short wave trough/cold
front translations in the long term, limiting confidence in
including critical probabilities at this time. The most likely
region for an increased fire weather threat would still be in the
Great Plains/High Plains where stronger downslope winds and mixing,
drier boundary layer and pockets of dry fuels align.

..Williams.. 10/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$