


Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
470 FNUS28 KWNS 142141 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday... A mid-level trough moving northeastward into the Northern Plains and corresponding lee cyclone/trough will support elevated southerly surface winds across the Great Plains ahead of advancing cold front. Recent rainfall across the central/northern Plains, marginally low relative humidity and largely unreceptive fuels should limit fire weather concerns for the region for Day 3/Thursday. As the cold front shifts eastward, increased south/southwest flow should move into the Midwest. Deeper boundary layer moisture transported north from the Gulf of America will support limited RH reductions within the stronger wind field across the Plains and Midwest, with showers and thunderstorms likely developing near the frontal boundary. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... Additional Gulf moisture ahead of the advancing cold front and a trough digging into the eastern U.S. will support more widespread rainfall across the region, particularly across the Ohio River Valley and Southeast. Forecast guidance still shows an active upper-level wave pattern continuing across CONUS through the weekend. Uncertainty exists in timing of short wave trough/cold front translations in the long term, limiting confidence in including critical probabilities at this time. The most likely region for an increased fire weather threat would still be in the Great Plains/High Plains where stronger downslope winds and mixing, drier boundary layer and pockets of dry fuels align. ..Williams.. 10/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$