316
FNUS28 KWNS 012151
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Day 3/Friday...
A strengthening upper-level trough over the West along with a
deepening lee trough across the Northern Plains will promote
slightly increased southerly winds across much of the Great Plains
and Upper Midwest, where well above normal temperatures will
contribute to dry fuels across the region. Enhanced downslope
southwest winds and drying on the nose of strong mid-level jet will
support an increased fire weather threat across northeastern WY,
southeastern MT and western SD where dry fuels and ongoing curing of
fine fuels could support wildfire spread. A 40% probability for
critical fire weather conditions was added to identify this threat.

...Day 4/Saturday...
Upper-level trough across the Intermountain West and strengthening
lee cyclone/trough across the Dakotas will continue to support a
swath of strong south/southwest flow from the southern High Plains
into the Upper Midwest. Dry and breezy south to southwest winds over
increasingly dry fuels with expected ERC percentiles above 90th
percentile across portions of the Midwest, should yield an increased
fire weather threat across portions of far northern NE, eastern SD
and southwestern MN where fuels are most receptive. A 40% critical
probability for wind/RH was introduced for Day 4/Saturday.

...Day 5-8/Sunday-Wednesday...
Dry, southwest flow ahead of persistent upper-level troughing or
potential cut-off low across the western U.S. should sustain dry and
breezy conditions over portions of the Great Basin and Lower
Colorado Basin through the middle of next week. Although the
synoptic setup supports elevated fire weather threat, fuel
conditions are anticipated to remain benign, limiting overall fire
weather concerns in the long term. Farther east, surface low
pressure across the Midwest will quickly translate northeastward
into Canada while high pressure settles into the Great Lakes region
serving to relax surface pressure gradients and winds.

..Williams.. 10/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$