865
FNUS28 KWNS 182126
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Southwest on Day 3/Thursday pivots
northeastward into the lower MS River Valley through Day 4/Friday.
Subsequent lee cyclogenesis across the Central Plains will maintain
moist low-level flow into the region. The moisture laden surface
trough along with upper-level support should promote widespread
wetting rains across much of the Southern Plains and eventually the
lower MS and OH river valleys through the end of the week, finally
reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Day 5/Saturday. This precipitation
event should largely drive a reduction in fire weather concerns into
the weekend, although some pockets of drier conditions and fuels
could remain particularly across far west TX and southern
GA/Carolinas regions.

Another upper-level trough bringing additional rainfall to CA and
the Desert Southwest Thursday and Friday migrates eastward, reaching
the lower CO River Basin by early next week. Surface trough
development across southern TX should supply a more robust low-level
moisture feed into the Southern Plains, aiding in additional
rainfall across the region Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, shifting eastward
into the lower MS River Valley by Day 8/Tuesday. Expected
precipitation across the Southern U.S. will mitigate the overall
fire weather threat through the extended forecast period.

..Williams.. 11/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$