454
FNUS28 KWNS 152149
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through the
work week and into the weekend across the south-central CONUS,
though uncertainty remains high regarding which days/areas will see
the greatest fire weather threat. Latest long-range guidance
continues to trend towards an amplifying upper wave over the central
U.S. Late Wednesday into Thursday with an attendant cyclone
intensifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes region. A second,
though lower amplitude, upper trough will progress across the
country late Friday into Saturday, supporting a second surface low
developing during the same period. These two systems will support
rain/snow chances across much of the country with the exception of
the Southwest and southern Plains where dry conditions will prevail.

...D3/Wednesday to D6/Saturday - Southern High Plains/Plains...
The fuel landscape is expected to gradually improve through the work
week as temperatures warm to the 75-90th percentiles of seasonal
normal and promote steady drying of dead/dormant fine fuels. The
intensification of a surface low over the northern High Plains on
D3/Wed will promote strengthening southwesterly winds across the
central to southern High Plains. Antecedent dry conditions coupled
with increasing winds should promote areas of elevated fire weather
conditions across northeast NM to southeast CO. 40% risk
probabilities have been introduced where ensemble agreement shows
the highest potential for a prolonged fire weather threat.

A cold front is forecast to push into the central/southern Plains
through D4/Thursday. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the
front with some reduction in RH likely within the post-frontal air
mass across southern KS into OK and northwest TX. While some
guidance, notably recent runs of the GFS, show widespread elevated
to critical fire weather conditions, other solutions are less
bullish on the overlap of 20+ mph winds and sub-25% RH. Although the
potential for critical conditions is noted, the disparity between
deterministic solutions and weak ensemble signals limit confidence
in this potential.

A rapid return to a southerly dry return flow regime is expected by
D5/Friday across the southern Plains as a surface low intensifies
over the Dakotas. A cold frontal passage is anticipated on
D6/Saturday with dry/windy conditions possible within the
pre-frontal air mass. 15-20 mph winds appear probable both days
across eastern NM into northwest TX, OK and southern KS, through
large spread regarding RH reductions within both regimes is noted.
As with D4/Thursday, poor agreement in wind speed/RH reductions
among deterministic guidance and weak ensemble signals suggest the
predictability of the fire weather threats on either day remains
limited at this range.

..Moore.. 12/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$