945
FNUS28 KWNS 032044
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

An elongated trough across the West into the northern Plains will
remain in place through roughly the middle of next week. The trough
will eventually lift northward and move east into the Northeast by
the end of next week. A surface front will move through the
northern/central Plains this weekend and stall early next week. The
front will then progress south and east when the upper trough in the
Upper Midwest/Northeast intensifies and moves eastward. High
pressure will then be the dominant feature east of the Divide. Fire
weather concerns will generally be low on account of limited overlap
of stronger winds and dry fuels. Additionally, precipitation is
possible along the front as it moves south and east. That said, some
concerns are possible this Sunday ahead of the front, particularly
where diurnal heating will be greatest.

...Upper Midwest...
Given the ongoing drought across much of Illinois, fuels have been
quite dry. Warm temperatures and a moderately strong surface
pressure gradient during the afternoon will support elevated to
possibly locally critical fire weather on Sunday. The highest
confidence (with support from ensemble guidance) is within
northern/central Illinois.

Farther northwest, closer to the front, enhanced southwesterly winds
will be possible across parts of western Iowa into southern
Minnesota. Given the potential for cloud cover, it is not clear how
low RH will fall during the afternoon. Fuels are not as receptive as
in Illinois, but finer fuels should be sufficiently dry to promote
fire spread if the meteorological factors can align. Confidence in
critical fire weather is too low for highlights, but at least
locally elevated fire weather is expected.

..Wendt.. 10/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$