741
FNUS28 KWNS 032201
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
A progressive but less amplified upper-level wave pattern will exist
through late this week. An upper-level short wave trough with
enhanced mid-level westerly flow entering the central U.S. Days
4-5/Thursday-Friday, along with a evolving surface trough across the
central/northern Plains should support an increased fire weather
threat across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. A highly
amplified pattern could emerge over the weekend with deep troughing
across the eastern U.S. and amplified ridging over the West. This
should contribute to a strong cold front intrusion into the
central/eastern U.S. early next week.

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
A deepening surface low moving into New England will promote breezy
southwest winds across the Mid-Atlantic region on Day 3/Wednesday
but alignment with sufficiently low RH in addition to cloud cover
should mitigate a larger fire weather concern across central VA.
Farther west, expanding/deepening lee troughing across the High
Plains and modest westerly flow over the southern Rockies on Day
4/Thursday will contribute to an increased fire weather threat
across the Southern Plains where 40% probabilities remain. Critical
fire weather conditions are possible across eastern NM/TX Panhandle
but a marginally receptive fuelscape should attenuate a more
significant fire threat.

...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday...
A dry cold front slides into the central/southern Plains by Day
5/Friday, keeping a dearth of moisture in place across the region. A
stronger cold front could arrive over the weekend under a more
pronounced/amplified upper-level pattern bringing a dry,
post-frontal environment to portions of central/western TX where
fuels remain dry. However, some uncertainty remains in timing of
cold front from long term model guidance, precluding introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. The same frontal system could
bring dry, offshore flow to portions of the Southeast early next
week where fuels remain receptive, although at least some
precipitation over the weekend should alleviate a broader fire
weather threat preceding the potential offshore event.

..Williams.. 11/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$