518
ACUS48 KWNS 210952
SWOD48
SPC AC 210951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains
to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect
northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas.
Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early
afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will
likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south
of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells
may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the
primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this
time.

On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and
Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing
will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear,
a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to
northern Alabama.

D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into
the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and
potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the
remainder of the week.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025