643
ACUS48 KWNS 080927
SWOD48
SPC AC 080925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained
near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest
medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude
Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next
weekend into early next week.  Relatedly, guidance is becoming more
unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the
Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms
of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses
south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of
the period.

It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to
modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return
could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend
into early next week.  This could promote destabilization supportive
of a risk for thunderstorm development.  However, with surface
cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,
the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of
limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025