


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
938 ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SWOD48 SPC AC 170847 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Northeast Day 4/Monday... As the strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley and Appalachians into the Northeast, low-end severe potential remains possible ahead of the cold front D4/Monday over parts of New England. Confined to a narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong low-level wind fields, shallow convection could support isolated damaging gusts before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. ...Rest of US... As the strong eastern US trough and low move into the Atlantic early next week, offshore flow should limit available moisture and buoyancy for much of the CONUS. A mid-level low moving into the Southwest and the southern Plains mid to late week could support some thunderstorms activity toward the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty remains very high with model guidance suggesting limited moisture return and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear. Thus, predictability remains too low for severe probabilities through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 10/17/2025