938
ACUS48 KWNS 170848
SWOD48
SPC AC 170847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Northeast Day 4/Monday...
As the strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley and Appalachians
into the Northeast, low-end severe potential remains possible ahead
of the cold front D4/Monday over parts of New England. Confined to a
narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong low-level wind
fields, shallow convection could support isolated damaging gusts
before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon.

...Rest of US...
As the strong eastern US trough and low move into the Atlantic early
next week, offshore flow should limit available moisture and
buoyancy for much of the CONUS. A mid-level low moving into the
Southwest and the southern Plains mid to late week could support
some thunderstorms activity toward the end of the forecast period.
However, uncertainty remains very high with model guidance
suggesting limited moisture return and poor overlap with stronger
vertical shear. Thus, predictability remains too low for severe
probabilities through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025