931
ACUS48 KWNS 190908
SWOD48
SPC AC 190906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an
eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.
Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains
into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture
return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into
the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop
across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface
cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger
southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.
However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given
the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.
Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as
details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become
better resolved.

The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and
Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting
broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist
into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper
trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in
medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and
associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025