613
ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SWOD48
SPC AC 090847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC`s EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday`s D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to
Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for
indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.

..Grams.. 11/09/2025