151
ACUS48 KWNS 100848
SWOD48
SPC AC 100846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week,
with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next
weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to
mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States.

Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on
D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend.
While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater
alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough
across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity
remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance
such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large
amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly
unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC`s
latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this
weekend`s forecast.

..Grams.. 11/10/2025