204
ACUS48 KWNS 290830
SWOD48
SPC AC 290828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest model output is not much different from prior runs concerning
the continuation of generally low convective potential across the
U.S. into and through the medium-range period.  Guidance continues
to suggest that an increasingly amplified regime across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America could lead
to the evolution of a prominent blocking pattern late this week into
next weekend.  By early next week, this may include a building
mid-level high over the northeastern Pacific, near the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, flanked by a pair of evolving lows
at somewhat lower latitudes, including one over the U.S.
Intermountain West.  Otherwise, the stronger westerlies may retreat
to somewhat higher latitudes, and mid/upper ridging may build in the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes east of the Rockies and
Mexican Plateau.  Significant surface cyclogenesis still appears
unlikely to the east of the U.S. Rockies, and low-level moisture
return off the Gulf Basin may be slow to develop.

..Kerr.. 09/29/2025