573
ACUS48 KWNS 130950
SWOD48
SPC AC 130949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...South-Central States on D5-8/Monday-Thursday...
Bulk of guidance continues to follow the lead of the EC-AIFS with
the handling of a shortwave trough initially over the Southwest at
12Z Sunday. This compact wave should dampen as it crosses the
southern Rockies to the central Great Plains into Monday. The
peripheral southern influence of the wave may overspread the
northern periphery of a confined western Gulf moisture plume. While
5 percent severe probabilities are evident, this setup will likely
depend greatly on more precise timing of the trough ejection and
attendant surface cyclone placement for a 15 percent highlight.

The dampening of this wave will largely be in response to an upper
ridge building from the Gulf into the Midwest downstream of an
expansive trough becoming anchored over the Southwest. This may
yield expansion of the persistent western Gulf moisture plume in the
South-Central States mid-week. Most guidance indicates an intense
mid-level jet may develop along the backside of this trough and
eventually curl through the base with the trough accelerating
eastward. Predictable timing of such a transition appears low given
the large spread across guidance, but the EC-AIFS and AIGFS are
consistent together in the 00Z run. This could yield an increasing
severe threat starting around Wednesday, which is supported by NSSL
GEFS ML version 1 probabilities peaking in this time frame.

..Grams.. 11/13/2025