523
FXUS63 KDDC 072057
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
257 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  for at least the next 10 days, through November 17th.

- Strong north winds Saturday, gusting to near 40 mph.

- Widespread hard/killing freezes Sunday morning and Monday
  morning.

- Rapid warming trend early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Dry quiet NWly midlevel flow continued at midday, with some
scattered cirrus. Weak northerly winds at midday will trend
light and variable through this evening, as weak high pressure
creates a weak pressure gradient.

Cirrus will increase this evening, ahead of the next shortwave
over Montana at 6 pm Friday, which will dive into the central
plains through Saturday morning. The associated dry cold front
will race through SW KS about sunrise, followed by intense N/NW
winds during the daylight hours Saturday. Given full sunshine in
a well mixed environment, continued to keep the wind grids near
the strongest available guidance. Winds will average 20-30 mph
sustained Saturday, with gusts of 40-45 mph. Cool/dry advection
Saturday will lower afternoon temperatures to near normal
November levels, in the upper 50s and lower 60s, but the wind
will make it feel much cooler.

The first of two freezes will occur Saturday night through
sunrise Sunday, with strong surface pressure rises expected.
North winds will remain elevated at 10-20 mph through Sunday
morning, but despite the mixing, cold advection will force air
temperatures well down into the 20s. Expect wind chills in the
teens Sunday morning.

A secondary, stronger surge of cold advection remains
consistently forecast by the models on Sunday, with 850 mb
temperatures falling to near -5C. Near full sunshine will
continue Sunday in a very dry, subsident air mass, but despite
the sun, afternoon temperatures will struggle in the lower to
mid 40s. Continued elevated north winds near 20 mph will produce
wind chills in the 30s, even during the afternoon hours Sunday.

The coldest temperatures so far this fall season are expected
with the second freeze Monday morning. Model consensus places
the center of the strong Canadian high pressure ridge over
central Kansas, probably just east of the DDC CWA, through
Monday morning. Still, a near ideal radiational cooling
environment is expected, at least much of the night, with light
winds and dry air. A widespread killing freeze will occur, with
air temperatures of 18-22 common. Where winds can remain near
calm through sunrise, some temperatures as cold as 15 are
probable, most likely toward central Kansas.

A rapid warming trend follows, with 50s Monday afternoon
replaced by unseasonably warm 70s Tuesday. CPC continues with
near 90% probability of above normal temperatures next week,
during the 12-16 November time frame. Models and ensembles are
incredibly quiet and completely dry through next week. High
confidence SW KS will remain dry through at least November 17th.
The latest deterministic ECMWF has zero QPF for SW KS through
its 15 day run, through November 21.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through 12z Sat, with a
continuation of VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus, and light winds. A
strong cold front will sweep through the airports 12-15z Sat,
followed by intense north to northwest winds, gusting 35-40 kts.
VFR/SKC will continue through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Although critical fire conditions are not expected, some
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday
afternoon given the strong northerly winds and dry advection.
With sustained winds expected to be 20-30 mph, and lowest
humidity around 20%, should be enough to at least have some fire
weather concerns. The greatest risk will be across western
zones, along and west of Route 83, where NBM has a 40-60%
chance of relative humidity below 20% and sustained winds
greater than 20 mph overlap.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Bennett