984
FXUS63 KDDC 102309
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions likely through the end of the week.

- Unseasonably warm high temperatures through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of a weakening upper level ridge in
the Intermountain West.

Ongoing dry pattern will persist tonight into Tuesday as the SREF
indicates riding aloft breaking down further, returning more of a
northwest flow to the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave perturbation tracking southeast through the Dakotas early
Tuesday, will help send a weak attendant frontal boundary through
western Kansas by early afternoon. This will further reinforce a
much drier air mass across the region, keeping precip chances out of
western Kansas through the end of the week.

Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight as a developing lee
side trough in southeast Colorado begins to edge into extreme
southwest Kansas, bringing about a west-southwest downslope flow
to the area overnight. With the HREF painting a widespread 60-80%
probability for temperatures dropping below 40F, expect lows generally
in the 30s(F) with the lower 40s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas where
there is only a 10-30% probability for temperatures slipping below
40F. Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely Tuesday as westerly
downsloping draws warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85
temperatures up above 15C in central Kansas to near 20C in extreme
southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. Look for
widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F) with the HREF indicating
a 70-90% probability for temperatures nudging above 65F in central/south
central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of exceeding 70F across all
of southwest Kansas. The projected frontal passage late Tuesday will
likely stall the warming trend briefly before a gradual warming trend
resumes Wednesday through Friday with medium range ensembles pointing
to ridging aloft transitioning slowly east out of the Colorado Rockies
into/through the Western High Plains and Central Plains during the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout all TAF sites
through the entire 00z TAF period. Winds will be light out of
the south direction throughout the night. Into Tuesday afternoon
however, a wind shift from the north is expected. Winds
remaining around 10-15 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Bennett