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FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remaining dry and mild through mid-week

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday with expected storm
  system

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

While not as warm as previous days, expect to continue to see
warm and above normal temperatures to continue amid weak ridging
and southerly and westerly low-level flow throughout mid-week.
High temperatures today will mainly be in the 60s across the FA,
with perhaps reaching low 70s along the KS/OK/CO borders. Lows
tonight expected to be mainly in the 40s. Monday will see the
greatest warm up of the stretch with widespread 70s, and perhaps
nearing 80 along the KS/OK border, in response to a more
westerly wind component and 850 mb temperatures increasing to around
15C. Tuesday and Wednesday continue to remain above normal with
subtle ridging moving back in ahead of the approaching deep
trough to the west.

The aforementioned trough will be our next increased chance at
rainfall across the CWA. NBM POPs have continued to increase
upwards to 50-60% for much of central and southwest Kansas.
There is some uncertainty among deterministic and ensemble
outputs on the timing of the trough ejection, and thus surface
low placement and timing as well. However, low-level moisture
return is evident in nearly all scenarios into Thursday, giving
credence to the increase precipitation chances. Severe weather
looks rather low with most guidance keeping the higher moisture
south and east of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12z TAF period. Winds
will generally be out of the southerly and southeasterly
direction 10-15 knots into this afternoon and throughout the
period. No adverse weather expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett