450
FXUS63 KDDC 092004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Coldest overnight lows of the season so far tonight

- Warming trend through the week

- Long term models have a quick moving system this weekend which
could lead to some small POP chances (10-20%)


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

19Z upper air observations have a large longwave trough centered
over the Great Lakes combined with a large ridge and 5890 dm high
over the western CONUS.  The transition of trough to ridge is
located in the central plains and a longitudinal jet streak is
located from central Canada to Oklahoma.  The little moisture the
jet has to work with has led to a narrow corridor of mid level
clouds mainly between the highway 83 and 283 corridors.  At the
surface a large area of colder air has centered over the central and
northern plains through the Great Lakes region and a 1037 surface
high is sliding south through the Dakotas.

Tonight with the cold air mass in place, the surface high leading to
clear skies and light winds, and the dry air especially along and
east of highway 283...we should see a setup that will allow efficient
radiational cooling after sunset and lead to some of the coldest
overnight lows of the season.  The higher probability of colder air
will be roughly along and east of highway 283 where the core of the
colder air will be in place and dew point values will fall into the
lower to mid 10s.  As a result I went more with a NBM 10th-25th
50/50 mix for lows in these regions leading to lows in the teens.
West of highway 283 we should start to see a transition and
moderation of the colder air that will lead the light winds to turn
to the west and will probably be enough to keep temperatures from
falling into the teens.

Monday should be another cool day however the transition of the
trough and ridge will continue and with winds in the boundary layer
turning to the southwest we should see moderation of the colder air
through the day and with the help of diurnal heating we could see
60 degree highs along the Colorado border.  Highs should stay in the
50s for areas along and east of highway 83 as the colder air will be
slower to leave and moderate.

Tuesday we should see the cold air mass firmly exited from Kansas
and with west to northwest winds the downsloping effects will help
to warm us back into the 70s.  A fast moving trough coming in from
the northwest should bring a cool front through western Kansas by
early afternoon however post frontal temperatures look to only cool
around 3-4 (C) in the 850 mb layer so I`m not anticipating a
significant drop in temperatures.  We should also continue to be dry
near the surface and no POPs are expected.

In the long term the 12Z updates in the GEFS and EPS shows more of a
quick moving longwave trough moving through the central plains from
late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  GDPS is still
showing the trough closing and moving more to the south in Texas
during this time frame.  Given the quicker trend with the trough and
faster movement POPs for the weekend time frame have increased a bit
mainly in central and eastern Kansas however they remain low at 10-
20%.  Also of note that this trough will mainly tap into milder air
until it progresses eastward so at this point the precipitation
should stay in liquid form in western Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A batch of mid level clouds located mainly around GCK and DDC
terminals could lead to near MVFR conditions through 20Z. Winds
will stay breezy through the rest of the day with sustained
winds at 15-20 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts. Wind and cloud
cover should both diminish tonight as a strong high pressure
center moves into Kansas and we should have good flying
conditions for Monday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro