470
FXUS63 KDDC 142315
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures for much of SW Kansas today

- Dry and quiet weather forecast until late next week at least

- Cooler temperatures return into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The central CONUS continues to see a primarily zonal flow pattern
with subtle ridging aloft. The most notable aspect of the forecast
is the record high temperatures today. Dodge City broke the previous
record of 82 degrees by reaching 83 so far today. Garden City has
currently tied the record of 81 and is expected to break it. Aided
by subtle downsloping and no inhibition to diurnal heating, much of
SW Kansas will reach and surpass 80 degree highs. These temperatures
are well above average for this time of year by about 20 degrees. No
other prevailing weather today with the weak high pressure system
off the Rockies. Into tomorrow, models/ensembles agree on a weak
surface low pressure system sweeping across the region. This will
have little effect outside of a wind shift brining some CAA and
cooler highs on Saturday to the tune of 75-80 degrees. On Sunday,
highs are forecast to cool even further back to below 70 degrees for
much of the area finally bringing temperatures closer to average
for this time of the year. Through at least Tuesday, the very quiet
stretch continues with no headlines. No tangible (>5%)
precipitation chances, and winds will be light enough to quell
fire weather concerns. As expected, the chances for a
significant system reaching SW Kansas and bringing rain later
next week is becoming more unlikely due to ensembles. A few days
ago chances were around 40%, to 30% yesterday, and <25% today.
This is not too surprising due to the ensembles poor resolution
of this current weather pattern and inability to prog previous
systems. With such discrepancies and lack of consistency, it is
no wonder that the temporal uncertainty is so high. Outside of
this chance, ensembles have the larger synoptic pattern return
to another zonal flow regime. It is quite possible SW Kansas
remains dry far into November for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Light
and variable winds will continue through around 14Z tomorrow
morning, followed by a weak cold frontal passage that will
result in an uptick winds out of the north into the 14-18 kt
range gusting to 24-28 kts during the late morning/early
afternoon. This increase in winds will be short lived as light
and variable winds should return by the end of the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Springer