540
FXUS63 KDDC 160502
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Wednesday

- Next shot at precipitation Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A quiet weather night is expected tonight. High pressure will be under
control across the state. Lows tonight will be in the 30s north to
the lower 40s in the south. For Sunday, a sfc lee trough will develop
with southerly winds increasing across the FA. Highs should peak
in the 60s to 70s. No precipitation is expected through the rest
of the weekend.

The tranquil weather pattern will continue Monday through the middle
portion of the next week. The NBM has silent pops during this period.
For temperatures, highs in the 70s are expected Monday. Highs in
the the 60s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows should bottom
out in the mix of the 30s and 40s. Again, any precipitation chances
look doubtful under this dull weather pattern we are expected to be
in per the long range models.

For Thursday, a large upper level trof begins to approach the
greater region from the west. Moisture advection is expected
downstream across the FA. This will set the stage for returning
precipitation chances across the state. Showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will be possible during this period. There is
considerable uncertainty in the deterministic models. Some of
the ensemble counterparts show some agreement with the heaviest
precipitation located across the far eastern zones to perhaps
out of the FA and across eastern Kansas and into Oklahoma. Will
have to watch for more trends at this point. The NBM does have
the highest pops across the eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will continue throughout this TAF period. Winds
will be light throughout the rest of the night and into Monday
morning. Winds increase 10-20 knots into late Monday morning and
into Monday evening. Winds will be out of the south and
southeastward direction through the TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Bennett