690
FXUS63 KDDC 190516
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures this weekend with highs nearing the century
  mark.

- Thunderstorms chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest
  Kansas Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft slowly building northward
across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Based on radar trends and CAMs, a few diunrally-driven showers/storms
may linger across central/south central Kansas through early evening.
Otherwise, drier conditions are expected through late Saturday afternoon.
Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to west central and extreme
southwest Kansas Saturday evening as the SREF indicates a weak upper
level shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Southern Rockies
into the Western Plains on the backside of an upper level high centered
across the Ark-La-Tex Region. Near the surface, pooled moisture reinforced
by prevailing southerlies will provide ample instability across western
Kansas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest
while a trough axis remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.
As a result, diurnally-driven thunderstorm development is likely across
eastern Colorado late Saturday afternoon as H5 vort maxima eject out
of the Southern Rockies with storms then spreading eastward, potentially
into far western Kansas Saturday evening. This is supported by the
latest HREF showing just a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
0.1 of an inch near and along the Colorado line by late Saturday
evening.

A little above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass with H85 temperatures well
above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C near the Colorado
line. Under plenty of sunshine, look for afternoon highs ranging from
the mid/upper 90s(F) to a little above 100F. This is suggested by
the HREF painting a widespread >90% probability of temperatures topping
95F with a 90% probability of exceeding 100F in south central Kansas.
Similar temperatures are likely Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the TAF period. DDC is
forecast to have some LLWS expected in the first few hours of the
TAF as well as VCTS continue to develop near the terminal over the
next few hours. Otherwise a south wind will prevail for much of
the period across all sites. A sharp wind shift is possible
near the end of the period, especially at GCK, but lack of
timing confidence has resulted in its exclusion.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...KBJ