853
FXUS63 KDDC 290540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will happen Saturday with gusts up to 50 mph at times

- Colder temperatures through the weekend

- Light accumulating snow for parts of southwest Kansas on
  Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

19Z upper air analysis shows generally zonal flow in the central
plains with a developing trough moving through the intermountain
west.  The upper level flow has brought in a layer of mid level
clouds.  A 700 mb shortwave in eastern Colorado has led to a
deepening surface low in the front range and strong boundary layer
winds out of the south to southwest has led to wind gusts around 30
mph.

Tonight the upper level trough should quickly move into western
Kansas by mid Saturday morning and this will continue to push the
surface low into the state through the early morning hours.  Given
the trends with the track of the trough and better upper level lift
it looks like most of southwest Kansas will be on the drier end of
the system.  The upper level lift doesn`t even show signs of
strengthening until the system is almost out of western Kansas with
areas in central Kansas seeing some light precipitation towards
sunrise Saturday morning.  POPs around 20% are included for areas
mainly from Hays to Pratt.  The cold air should quickly sweep in
behind the front through the morning however the time window for a
wintry mix around Hays looks to be brief and as such no
accumulations are expected and no winter weather impacts are
anticipated.

The main impacts on Saturday will be the winds and the blast of
colder air.  Post frontal pressure gradient will increase quickly
after 12Z and we should see sustained winds of 20-30 kts with gusts
over 40 kts by mid to late morning.  Strong CAA will occur through
the day as 850 mb temps will be warmest around midnight and then
fall to -5 to -10 (C) by the end of the afternoon.  As such trended
with NBM25th for hourly and MaxT to reflect steady to slowly falling
temperatures through the day.  Loaded NBM75th percentile for
sustained winds and NBM90th for gusts to get closer to the higher
wind speeds expected.  Winds should diminish as a surface high
enters into the central plains during the day on Sunday but with the
polar air in place and CAA through the day highs on Sunday will
struggle to get into the lower 30s.

The next storm system is forecast to move through western Kansas
mainly for Monday morning through the early afternoon.  Medium range
models are still in low confidence about snowfall totals however the
confidence about where the bands of light/moderate snow are starting
to line up better as the area of 700 mb lift with the upper level
shortwave looks to be best along and north of highway 50 through the
morning and then sweeping to the southeast by early afternoon.  This
would put the most favorable area of snow bands from Garden City to
Pratt on north with higher totals between the K-96 and I-70
corridors.  Strong pressure gradient drops aren`t anticipated at
this time so winds should stay on a relatively lighter side.  Winter
weather impacts at this point should stay minor given the light
accumulations and a more dry powdery snow due to the polar air in
place and lack of blowing snow.  LREF probabilities range from 30-
50% chance of > 1 inch of snow.  With the open progressive nature of
the system we should see the snow quickly move out by Monday
afternoon and long range ensembles show a more quiet weather pattern
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface observations across southwest KS reveal MVFR cigs are
impacting all terminals except LBL ahead of an approaching cold
front. Short range guidance indicates these conditions will
continue through sunrise as the front approaches, but with cold
air advection increasing behind the front, skies will scatter
out and yield VFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon.
In addition, current southerly winds aoa 12 kts will turn
northerly and increase dramatically behind the front, becoming
sustained in the 25-30 kt range gusting to 35-45 kts during the
late morning through early afternoon. After this period, winds
will gradually weaken, reaching aob 12 kts after 00Z. There is
also an outside chance for light rain at HYS before sunrise this
morning, which could briefly reduce vis, but confidence in this
scenario is not high.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Springer