360
FXUS63 KDDC 040956
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
356 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm highs in the 70s to lower 80s are predicted for today.

- Mild and dry weather is forecast through Saturday.

- The coldest temperatures of the season are on the way for
  Monday morning, with lows in the teens and 20s.

- No rain is expected over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The pattern of dry frontal passages and small to moderate
changes in day to day temperatures will persist through Saturday
as zonal mid level flow persists, with embedded upper level
disturbances. Light downslope flow will allow temperatures to
reach into the 70s to lower 80s today, with the warmest readings
in far southwest Kansas. These highs are close to the 75th
percentile as pattern recognition would suggest.

Cooler air will arrive Wednesday in the wake of a cold front,
with highs in the low to mid 60s. Only small fluctuations in
temperature can be expected for Thursday through Saturday as
the next dry cold front passes.

A deep upper level trough will build southeastward out of Canada
by the weekend. The brunt of the cold air will pass north and
east of the Kansas high plains, as is typical in the absence of
snow cover or a southwestern United States trough. There will
be a gradient in highs across Kansas, with the warmest in the
far southwest and coolest in central Kansas. Hays will likely
experience 40s to near 50 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday.
With strong surface high pressure and dry air over the central
plains by Monday morning, radiational cooling will allow for a
hard freeze, with lows in the teens to mid 20s. Teens are more
likely in the traditionally colder river bottoms given the
clear skies and light winds. Northwest flow cold surges
typically do not last long out here on the high plains unless
there is a mechanism to keep the colder air lodged up against
the high plains, and this will not be the case. Thus, expect
downslope warming to develop in far southwest Kansas by Monday
afternoon, with highs in the 50s there (40s at Hays). By Tuesday
the downslope flow will spread eastward, with highs in the 60s
likely into the middle of next week.

This pattern is very unfavorable for precipitation and none is
forecast for the next week. All of the ensemble means indicate
0% chances for measurable rain.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025


Light southwest to west downslope winds will develop today,
leading to VFR conditions. Prior to this between 10-13z, areas
of BR with visibilities as low as 1 to 3 miles are possible at
KHYS and KDDC since dewpoints are not far below current
temperatures.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch