643
FXUS63 KDDC 081629
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1029 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday. Highs around 70
  possible.

- Elevated fire weather risk west of highway 83.

- Colder temperatures will return Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Earlier this morning, 850mb temperatures across western Kansas
ranged from 4 to 6C. The mean flow at the 850mb and 700mb levels
was becoming more westerly, a shift from the north winds
experienced yesterday morning. At the surface, a trough of low
pressure was located over eastern Colorado. The cold dome of
high pressure that moved into western Kansas on Saturday night
now stretched from the western Great Lakes into eastern
Oklahoma. The 500mb flow across the western and central United
States was northwest, with several embedded upper waves. One
wave was located across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and a weaker
one was over Wyoming. A third, more significant upper wave was
positioned just off the British Columbia coast, near the top of
the West Coast upper ridge.


For today, the surface trough of low pressure over eastern
Colorado will move into western Kansas, as the next weak upper
level disturbance embedded in the northwest flow crosses the
West Central High Plains. With the passage of this surface
boundary, the westerly downslope flow across western Kansas will
improve, causing boundary layer and 850mb temperatures to warm.
The mean 24hour net temperature warmup, from 00z Monday to 00z
Tuesday, is expected to be roughly 5-8C. This, combined with
the improving downslope flow and abundant sunshine, easily
supports the NBM high temperatures. It would not be surprising
if a few locations end up being a few degrees warmer,
potentially reaching highs in the lower 60 degrees.

On Tuesday, this warming trend will continue, with 850mb
temperatures expected to warm another 8C by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models are again showing good westerly downslope flow
present across western Kansas below the 700mb level. Also the
forecast 850mb temperatures were similar to the forecast
temperatures yesterday which are in the +90th percentile for
this time of year. This indicates that anomalously warm air will
be in place over southwest Kansas and based on this and
westerly downslope flow, the potential for highs in the lower
70s would be likely. The latest NBM guidance however continues
to appear too cool so as a result and given agreement from
surrounding offices have trended towards the warmer 75th
percentile for highs Tuesday afternoon which gave us highs in
the mid 60s to near 70. This still may be too cool in some areas
on Tuesday afternoon.

Not only will we be monitoring these very warm temperatures but
fire weather will also be a concern. Dry westerly winds
combined with the unseasonably warm air on Tuesday will create
at least elevated fire weather conditions across southwest
Kansas. Afternoon humidity values will drop to around 20 percent
west of Highway 83. Wind gusts in this area however are
expected to remain below 20 mph during the afternoon. There is
some concern that the winds may end up being a little weaker
Tuesday afternoon, based on the NBM wind bias, 850mb and 700mb
wind speeds, and deep mixing potential. Also humidity values may
end up being a little lower also due to the deep mixing
potential. As a result, there should be a slightly higher
concern for fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Especially west of
highway 83, despite that current conditions only suggesting an
elevated fire risk.

Cooler air returns mid week, with a more significant shot of
cold air arriving by Friday. Our mid week cool down will be due
to a cold front crossing southwest Kansas as the next in a
series of upper level troughs that are embedded in a northwest
flow crosses the Northern Plains. This cold front will bring a
drop in temperatures of around 10 degrees. Keep in mind that even
with this drop of 10 degrees on Wednesday the temperatures will
still continue to be above the seasonal normals for this time of
year.

Our next significant shot of colder air across southwest Kansas
will accompany the cold front on Friday. This cold air mass we
will be monitoring late week will originate in northern Alberta
and should easily surge south into the Northern Plains Thursday
given the location of the upper ridge along the coast of British
Columbia. On Friday this upper ridge will move east across the
western United States, which will shift the coldest air over the
Northern Plains eastward, putting southwest Kansas on the western
edge of this cold air invasion. Being on the western edge of this
cold air mass will make temperatures tricky following the cold
front passage. Currently, only 20% of the ensemble clusters
support temperatures colder than Grand Ensemble so at this the
most likely solution is for highs following our cold frontal
passage still appears to be mainly in the 30s Friday and Saturday
with less than a 25% chance for temperatures to be up to 10
degrees cooler. Confidence however is low (30-40%) on temperatures
that far out so anyone with plans for Friday or early next
weekend may wish to monitor the latest forecast as another shot of
cold air arrives late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Tuesday. West-southwest winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
persist through much of the period with a weak lee side trough of
low pressure remaining anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson