333
FXUS63 KDDC 231016
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
416 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds Sunday with scattered rain showers Sunday
  afternoon.

- Decreasing clouds Monday with afternoon temperatures near
  seasonal normals for late November.

- Elevated north winds behind a dry cold front Tuesday.

- Widespread killing freeze in the 20s Wednesday morning.

- A long dry stretch expected Tuesday through Friday.

- An intense arctic cold front is currently timed for Saturday
  morning, followed by dramatically colder arctic air next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Midnight infrared satellite imagery revealed a perfectly clear
sky over Kansas, with a subsident dry regime under the ridge
axis. A closed midlevel cyclone near 563 dm was over southern
Arizona. Lightning detection indicated active thunderstorms in
advance of the ejecting cyclone across southeast Arizona. This
convection represents the strong forcing for ascent that will
race across SW KS Sunday afternoon/evening. Models maintain the
strength of the cyclone, or even intensify it modestly, as it
arrives in Colorado late today. After a clear start, clouds will
increase rapidly through midday. South winds will respond to the
approaching system, gusting to near 30 mph. This continues to
present itself as a high pop/low QPF event, with widespread rain
shower coverage, but relatively limited rainfall at any one
location. Showers near Elkhart around noon, will advance rapidly
northeast through the afternoon, along US 283 by 4-5pm. The band
of showers will persist across eastern zones for a few hours
this evening, but the cyclone`s dry slot will end rain for most
zones Sunday night. Some showers will likely persist near I-70
and Hays into Monday morning, nearest the track of the parent
upper low. NBM probablity of QPF > 0.10 inch remains about the
same as previous runs, and NBM/WPC/ECMWF QPF guidance are in
good agreement suggesting 0.10-0.20 inch will be common.
Progressive nature of the trough and forcing for ascent will
limit residency time for rainfall at any one location, limiting
amounts. Model progged instability remains minimal, and thunder
was kept out of the grids. This said, the trough`s timing with
the afternoon heating cycle, and cold advection at 500 mb
steepening lapse rates, suggests a few rumbles of thunder are
possible. Enhanced/erratic outflows are possible near the
passing showers this afternoon.

The closed midlevel cyclone is forecast to track directly over
SW KS tonight through Monday morning. Widespread stratus is
expected to develop after sunset tonight, and persist through
the first half of Monday. No more measurable rainfall is
expected tonight, but areas of drizzle are likely, with 00z NAM
displaying its classic light QPF drizzle signature. The blanket
of stratus will prevent radiational cooling tonight, keeping
temperatures unseasonably mild in the 40s Monday morning (normal
is upper 20s). Strong subsidence behind the exiting trough will
clear the sky rapidly Monday afternoon, with afternoon
temperatures not far from normal in the 50s.

A long dry stretch remains evident Tuesday through Friday, and
the NBM is dry for all zones these 4 days, excellent for the
Thanksgiving travel period. The synoptic pattern will be very
quiet this week, with benign NWly midlevel flow gradually
trending zonal. An intensifying Alberta clipper in the northern
branch racing through the northern plains Tuesday, will push a
dry cold front through SW KS sunrise Tuesday. North winds
Tuesday will be stronger than NBM guidance, with 850 mb wind
fields suggesting gusts of 40-45 mph are probable. Models
maintain great continuity showing near 1032 mb Canadian high
pressure settling directly over SW KS Wednesday morning,
delivering a widespread hard/killing freeze in the 20s. Some
moderation in afternoon temperatures is forecast Thursday and
Friday.

Dramatically colder arctic air will arrive next weekend. While
details are still rather muddled, the overall message is
increasingly clear that easily the coldest air of the season is
on its way. 00z ECMWF and the majority of its EPS members show
the sharp cold front passage around Saturday morning, with the
atmosphere growing progressively colder through the day
Saturday. This ECMWF/EPS branch of the guidance crashes 850 mb
temperatures well below 0C Saturday afternoon, with a non-
diurnal temperature curve downward. NBM is almost certainly not
cold enough, and expect the forecast to grow colder with time.
Even colder air pours in next Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures
as cold as -13C. 00z ECMWF and its ensemble members are very
cold, with Sunday -afternoon- temperatures in the teens and 20s.
Residents should begin preparation of their homes and
automobiles for the first arctic air of the season, and
agriculture producers should plan for cold weather impacts for
their livestock next weekend. At this early stage of the game,
the positively tilted nature of the parent trough suggests that
a significant winter storm is unlikely in SW KS Sunday/Monday.
However, areas of freezing drizzle/light snow are probable, and
this will be refined over the coming days. Indeed, NBM is
already including snow across western zones next Sunday.
Regarding impacts and IDSS, we will begin messaging this cold
outbreak on this shift. The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC
highlights a 70% probability of below normal temperatures during
this Sunday-Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through 18z Sun, with
a continuation of VFR/SKC and light winds. Rapidly increasing
mid and high clouds are expected after 18z Sun. A band of rain
showers is expected to be near EHA around 18z Sun, GCK/LBL
through 21z Sun, near DDC 21z Sun through 00z Mon, and near HYS
00-03z Mon. Rain showers will move rapidly northeast through the
airports, with minimal reductions in visibility and limited
impacts on aviation operations. After 18z Sun, south winds will
increase at GCK/LBL/DDC with gusts to near 25 kts. Briefly
higher gusts may occur with passing showers. High confidence
that flight categories will degrade after 00z Mon, with
widespread IFR stratus expected, especially after 06z Mon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner