589
FXUS63 KDDC 300426
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through the upcoming weekend.

- Rain will likely return during the October 7-9th time range.

- Afternoons will remain warm, with temperatures mainly in the
  80s. Some lower 90s are expected Friday and Saturday
  afternoons with strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Near the surface,
a weak lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening
across eastern Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are
likely early in the period despite the SREF indicating a weak upper
level shortwave trough lifting northeast through the Western High
Plains tonight. Although a prevailing south-southeasterly upslope
flow will continue to reinforce surface dewpoints in the 50s(F)
ahead of an anchored lee side trough in eastern Colorado, very
limited instability (MUCAPE values only up to 100-300 J/kg) present
will hinder thunderstorm chances for the most part the next few
days. Thunderstorm development is forecast in eastern Colorado
late this afternoon/early evening as ejecting H5 vort maxima
interact with the aforementioned anchored lee side trough. A
stray storm drifting into extreme southwest Kansas near the
Colorado line cannot be ruled out.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast tonight as low level
southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across western
Kansas, especially with surface dewpoints holding in the 50s(F). The
HREF shows a 60-80% probability for temperatures dropping below 60F
in extreme southwest Kansas to a 40-60% probability of temperatures
slipping below 65F in south central Kansas, so look for lows
generally in the 50s(F) out west to the lower/mid 60s(F) farther
east. Above normal temperatures continue into Tuesday as prevailing
southerlies help draw slightly warmer air into the area, pushing
H85 temperatures well above 15C in central Kansas to near 25C in
extreme southwest Kansas. As a result, widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s(F) can be expected, especially with the HREF painting
a 60-80% probability of temperatures topping 80F in central/south
central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of temperatures
exceeding 80F elsewhere. A gradual warming trend will see
temperatures nearing 90F by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR flight category for all airports during the time period. The
thick cirrus should give way to SKC conditions by late Tuesday
morning. Winds will increase after 16Z and we could see gusts
at all airports in the 20-25 kt range between 18-01Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro